646
FXUS64 KLZK 211707 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1107 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED ACROSS THE ENTIRE MS VALLEY
THIS SATURDAY MORNING. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SKIES WERE CLEAR LOCALLY AND
WINDS WERE LIGHT AND/OR CALM ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE.
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS PROVEN TO BE EFFICIENT EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE REPEATED ON SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN
THE ONGOING PATTERN. FOR LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS, HEDGED TEMPERATURES TO THE NBM 25 PERCENTILE WHICH ALSO
MATCHED CLOSELY WITH THE HRW-ARW SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE. THESE TWO
MODELS WERE FOLLOWING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE TRENDS MUCH CLOSER
COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMED TO CARRY A WARM BIAS. BY
DAYBREAK, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 20S STATEWIDE WITH WITH A
FEW ISOLATED VALLEY LOCATIONS REACHING THE UPPER 10S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE CHILLY DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE E/NE.
SYNOPTICALLY, NW UPPER FLOW WAS IN PLACE BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER TROUGH INVOF OF NEW ENGLAND.
GOING THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL DE-AMPLIFY WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
NATIONS MID-SECTION. NEAR THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND REGIONS RESULTING IN
E/NE WINDS BECOMING S/SWRLY WINDS BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH INCREASES OF 4-
8 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD COMPARED TO TODAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NEW ENGLAND, AND MOVING AWAY FROM ARKANSAS. A NORTHWEST FLOW OUT OF
CANADA WILL BE GONE, AND REPLACED WITH MORE OF A ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW
AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. READINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.
WHILE THERE WILL BE A DRY BEGINNING, MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE
UNSETTLED. A SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS
MONDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES ARKANSAS THE DAY
BEFORE CHRISTMAS, GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON CHRISTMAS DAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND SHOWERS SHOULD TEMPORARILY END. TWO MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY,
WITH SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER BACK IN THE FORECAST.
DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME, THERE IS AN OUTSIDE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, MODEL INSTABILITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
POINT, BUT IT IS WORTH MONITORING. WELL ABOVE SEASONAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING IN PLACES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT TIMES IN
DIRECTION, WITH MOST TERMINALS MAINTAINING E WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 42 25 47 34 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 48 25 54 34 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 42 25 49 35 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 46 26 50 35 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 43 28 50 36 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 46 28 53 35 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 48 25 51 35 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 41 25 48 34 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 41 26 46 33 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 44 26 51 34 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 46 26 51 35 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 42 25 48 33 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 43 28 49 35 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...67
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