883
FXUS64 KLZK 141716
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1116 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS TUE
MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. WITH A CLEAR SKY...TEMPS HAVE
DROPPED DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S SO FAR THIS MORNING.
EXPECT LOWS BY SUNRISE TO DROP DOWN INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
THE SFC HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SRLY FLOW RETURNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 40S TO LOW/MID 50S FOR THIS THIS AFTERNOON. A NEW WEAK
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE TONIGHT INTO WED...WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE COOLER FOR WED AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. INCREASED
CLOUDS MAY ALSO AIDE IN KEEPING TEMPS COOLER FOR WED. NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM DRY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH UPPER NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE NATIONS
MID-SECTION. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE SITUATED OVER
TX PROVIDING LIGHT W AND NW WINDS TO AR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
OFF THE E THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND RESULTANT SURFACE WINDS
WILL SWITCH AROUND THE S/SW. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/
MIDDAY SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
SYNOPTICALLY, AN UPPER CLOSED LOW NEAR THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA WILL
EJECT NEWRD, BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE, JUST AHEAD OF LARGER DEEPENING
TROUGH INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. OVER THE WEEKEND, SW UPPER
FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO SETUP WITH THE APPROACH OF THE OPEN WAVE
TROUGH. QUICKLY ON THE HILLS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE TRAILING
NEUTRALLY TILTED APPARENT TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORMER TROUGH SHOULD SPUR
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES, DEEPENING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE LATTER LARGE SCALE TROUGH, IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO EXACTLY WHERE POPS DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS UNCERTAINTY HAS CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE MOST UNCERTAINTY LIES OVER WRN AR WHERE
QPF COULD REMAIN NEAR ZERO TO PERHAPS 0.10" OF AN INCH DUE TO
CONVECTION INITIATING FURTHER E OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN AR. QPF
AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM AROUND 0.10-0.25" OVER CNTRL AR, TO 0.25-
0.50" OVER E AND SE AR. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY OWING TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE STATE.
ONCE THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT EXIT AR ON SATURDAY, MUCH COLDER
ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE FROM THE NRN PLAINS. CONFIDENCE
IS MUCH GREATER TO THE PROBABILITY AND MAGNITUDE OF INTRUSIVE ARCTIC
AIR SETTLING INTO THE REGION VS WHERE POPS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD END THE PERIOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE
FOR THE DATE BENEATH A NEARLY 1050 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
FORECASTS WILL REFLECT FORECAST POSITION OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT (SHORT TERM DISCUSSION). MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE; THE GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 51 22 38 28 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 54 28 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 48 25 43 30 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 49 25 46 27 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 49 26 41 27 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 53 30 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 52 24 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 49 23 39 29 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 48 23 35 28 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 51 27 44 28 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 50 25 43 26 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 49 23 38 25 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 47 27 41 29 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...62
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