348
FXUS64 KLZK 142043
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
243 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
20Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS FEATURE ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED AIR MASS, AND LOW CLOUD COVER
(MVFR CEILINGS) WILL PROMOTE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY, AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, ALL EYES HAVE BEEN ON THE FRIGID COLD
WEATHER THAT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD, AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST
WEATHER SEEN ACROSS ARKANSAS SO FAR THIS SEASON.
IN REGARDS TO THE COLD WEATHER, MODELS ARE BRINGING A VERY STRONG
SURFACE HIGH INTO THE STATE THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CANADA. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND, BUT
THE STRONG HIGH REALLY STARTS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SINGLE DIGIT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH ON MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS AROUND
1050 MB, WHICH IS REMARKABLE.
MOVING ON TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER, MODELS ARE SHOWING A
LOT OF INCONSISTENCIES AT THIS RANGE, BUT SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS IN THE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME, AS A WARM FRONT OVER TEXAS STARTS TO
OVERRIDE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA.
THE BIGGEST ISSUE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS THE AVAILABILITY OF
MOISTURE. IF ADEQUATE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE, AND THAT IS A BIG 'IF'
AT THIS POINT, THEN THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY WEATHER. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES OVER ARKANSAS AND MOISTURE AS
A LIMITING FACTOR, I SUSPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD BE SOUTH OF
THE AREA, AND ANYTHING THAT FELL IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WOULD BE DRY,
POWDERY SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS ACCUMULATION.
THIS IS ALL HIGHLY SUBJECTIVE AT THIS POINT, AND MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL
IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT WINTRY WEATHER IN ANY OF THE GRIDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THIS BEARS WATCHING, AND IF WE START TO
SEE MORE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODEL RUNS...WINTER WEATHER MAY NEED TO
BE INTRODUCED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
FORECASTS WILL REFLECT FORECAST POSITION OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED COLD FRONT (SHORT TERM DISCUSSION). MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE; THE GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 22 38 28 53 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 28 52 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 25 43 31 50 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 25 46 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 26 41 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 30 51 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 24 49 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 23 39 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 23 35 27 50 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 27 44 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 25 43 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 23 38 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 27 41 30 52 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...55
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