180
FXUS64 KLZK 150545 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1145 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
20Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS FEATURE ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED AIR MASS, AND LOW CLOUD COVER
(MVFR CEILINGS) WILL PROMOTE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY, AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, ALL EYES HAVE BEEN ON THE FRIGID COLD
WEATHER THAT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD, AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST
WEATHER SEEN ACROSS ARKANSAS SO FAR THIS SEASON.
IN REGARDS TO THE COLD WEATHER, MODELS ARE BRINGING A VERY STRONG
SURFACE HIGH INTO THE STATE THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CANADA. THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE AREA EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND, BUT
THE STRONG HIGH REALLY STARTS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. SINGLE DIGIT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH ON MONDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS AROUND
1050 MB, WHICH IS REMARKABLE.
MOVING ON TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER, MODELS ARE SHOWING A
LOT OF INCONSISTENCIES AT THIS RANGE, BUT SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS IN THE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME, AS A WARM FRONT OVER TEXAS STARTS TO
OVERRIDE THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA.
THE BIGGEST ISSUE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS THE AVAILABILITY OF
MOISTURE. IF ADEQUATE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE, AND THAT IS A BIG 'IF'
AT THIS POINT, THEN THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY WEATHER. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES OVER ARKANSAS AND MOISTURE AS
A LIMITING FACTOR, I SUSPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WOULD BE SOUTH OF
THE AREA, AND ANYTHING THAT FELL IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WOULD BE DRY,
POWDERY SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS ACCUMULATION.
THIS IS ALL HIGHLY SUBJECTIVE AT THIS POINT, AND MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL
IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT WINTRY WEATHER IN ANY OF THE GRIDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THIS BEARS WATCHING, AND IF WE START TO
SEE MORE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODEL RUNS...WINTER WEATHER MAY NEED TO
BE INTRODUCED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING LATE THIS TUE EVENING...BUT THERE LOOKS
TO BE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE DOMINANT FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 21 41 30 53 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 26 54 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 23 46 32 49 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 24 46 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 26 42 29 54 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 29 53 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 24 51 30 57 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 23 42 30 49 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 23 37 29 51 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 26 44 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 25 45 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 22 42 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 26 43 30 52 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...62
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