569
FXUS64 KLZK 150906
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
306 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
A NEW WEAK FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE STATE EARLY THIS WED
MORNING...WITH MAINLY AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...TO A MORE NRLY WIND. SOME LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALSO
NOTED WITH THE FRONT AS WELL OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING IN COOLER TEMPS FOR THIS WED AFTERNOON COMPARED TO
TUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TO NIGHT...BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. SRLY TO WRLY WINDS
WILL RETURN FOR THU...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL THE
EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
THE LONG TERM PERIOD COULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY ACTIVE WITH MANY
FACETS OF WEATHER TO UNRAVEL THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
TO BEGIN, SW WILL BE IN PLACE AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TOWARDS AR. ON THE HILLS OF THIS FEATURE, AN
APPARENT LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPENING AND TRANSLATE EWRD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE FORMER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
STATE ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BREAKING OUT OVER MAINLY
CNTRL AND ERN SECTIONS OF AR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
CYCLOGENESIS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL SPUR A SURFACE LOW AND
RESULTANT TRAILING COLD FRONT BACK TO THE SW WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BEING IN THE FORM OF ALL LIQUID WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 50S. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ON THE
DECLINE OWNING TO LACKING RETURN FLOW DURATION ACROSS THE REGION.
THE LATTER FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY WITH
ARCTIC AIR USHERING INTO AR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. A FEW
FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER NRN AR ON SATURDAY EVENING
BENEATH THE PASSING APPARENT TROUGH, BUT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
ACROSS AR WITH THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S AND 50S. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL FEEL BALMY COMPARED TO WHAT'S TO COME.
THE MAIN STORY DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE BRUTALLY COLD AND DRY
ARCTIC AIR INVADING THE STATE. THIS WILL BE EVIDENT STARTING SUNDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DURATION OF LONG TERM. TEMPERATURES FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 0S TO 10S. AFTERNOON
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S AND 30S. GIVEN THE
DURATION OF TIME EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING (I.E. 48-96 HOURS,
DEPENDING ON YOUR SPECIFIC LOCATION), AND CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL
FOR WATER PIPES TO BURST IF NOT PROPER PREPPED FOR THE COLD. PLANS
SHOULD BE MADE TO COVER OUTSIDE WATER SPIGOTS IF NOT ALREADY DONE
SO.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE THE ONLY STORY, FACTOR IN NRLY
BLUSTERY WINDS AND APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER. THE
COLDEST APPARENT TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO FALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS WHERE READINGS MAY RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO
IN THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING TIME PERIODS WITH NOT MUCH RELIEF IN THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WILL NOT ESCAPE
THE COLD ENTIRELY WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED
TO DIP WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID 10S.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE INTRUSION OF THIS ARCTIC
AIRMASS GIVEN THE MERIDONAL COMPONENT OF WINDS ALOFT OUT OF CANADA.
COUPLE THIS WITH A STOUT, ~1050 MB SURFACE HIGH SPILLING INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS, AND THE CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR THIS
SCENARIO TO PLAY OUT AS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS.
LOOKING TOWARDS MID-WEEK, NEXT WEEK, ATTENTION TURNS TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WHERE A SURFACE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPUR BENEATH A
DEVELOPING TROUGH. AT THIS TIME THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO MAINLY IMPACTING COASTAL STATES WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF A WINTER STORM. QUESTIONS REMAIN HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL
LIFT NWRD TOWARDS THE AR BORDER, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE DRY
NATURE OF THE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE HERE. ANALYZING
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE GRAND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (ECMWF/GEFS/GEPS),
AND THERE IS CURRENTLY 20-40% MODEL PROGS OF 1" OF SNOW OR MORE OVER
PORTIONS OF S AND SE AR. PERCENTILES DROP OF SHARPLY FURTHER N
TOWARDS CNTRL AR WHERE PROBABILITIES TOP OUT BETWEEN 10-20%. SOME
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE OR LESS SNOW FROM RUN TO RUN
BUT OVERALL THIS DATA IS TOO INCONSISTENT TO BEAR MUCH WEIGHT. JUST
FROM A SYNOPTIC SETUP GUT FEELING, MUCH OF AR SHOULD REMAIN DRY DUE
TO EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DISTANCE FROM THE MOISTURE
SOURCE (I.E. SURFACE LOW). THINGS COULD CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THE EVENT, BUT OVERALL THE COLD WEATHER WILL BE AR'S MAIN STORY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 41 30 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 54 29 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 46 32 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 46 28 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 42 29 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 53 33 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 51 30 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 42 30 49 28 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 37 29 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 44 30 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 45 28 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 42 27 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 43 30 52 32 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70
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