195
FXUS64 KLZK 160536 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1136 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. H500 SHORTWAVE WILL
TRAVERSE THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT PROVIDING MID-LEVEL NW
FLOW IN ITS WAKE ON THURSDAY. A SW US SYSTEM WILL APPROACH BY
FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE FLOW BECOMING SW LATER IN THE
PERIOD.
AT THE SFC, RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SINK SOUTH THEN
EASTWARD FROM THU-FRI. THIS WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF
THE WEST ON THURSDAY BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES. BUT, TD
VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S F ON FRIDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 50S F.
SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE NEXT H500 SYSTEM NEARS THE STATE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FOUND TO THE EAST OF
THE STATE INTO SATURDAY. QPF LOOKS MINIMAL ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL
WITH GENERALLY LESS THAT 0.10 INCHES EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE
ROCKIES BRINGING WITH IT A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT THE
STATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE,
HOWEVER, QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOWER END. THE
BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR THAT MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE USHERED INTO THE STATE LATE
SUNDAY, LASTING WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DANGEROUS AND WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW WHERE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING.
ADDITIONALLY, MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING A
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
WHILE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS, IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT POTENTIAL IMPACTS MIGHT
BE. CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK IN FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AND
FORECAST.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL-BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY BE MUCH LOWER WITH SOME
PLACES APPARENT TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW ZERO.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
EXPECT DOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 29 55 31 53 / 0 0 0 30
CAMDEN AR 29 62 33 59 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 32 52 31 53 / 0 0 0 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 27 58 32 53 / 0 0 0 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 29 56 32 55 / 0 0 0 30
MONTICELLO AR 33 61 35 59 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 27 60 33 55 / 0 0 0 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 29 52 29 53 / 0 0 0 30
NEWPORT AR 28 53 30 53 / 0 0 0 20
PINE BLUFF AR 30 58 34 57 / 0 0 0 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 25 55 30 55 / 0 0 0 30
SEARCY AR 27 56 28 55 / 0 0 0 20
STUTTGART AR 30 55 33 56 / 0 0 0 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...62
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