671
FXUS64 KLZK 160830
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE EARLY THIS
THU...WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. TEMPS
WERE MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME AREAS IN THE
40S WHERE WINDS HAVE INCREASED FROM THE SW. THESE SW WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR A LARGER PORTION OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO INCREASE FROM WED A FEW
DEG...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION FROM THE NW TODAY TO THE WEST TONIGHT...
EVENTUALLY SW ON FRI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE. THIS
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER AR FRI NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF AR
BY SAT. CHANCES FOR SOME RAINFALL WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST WITH
THE APPROACH OF THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE ON FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
MAINLY JUST A TENTH OR TWO OR RAINFALL FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH WHEN THE PRECIP OCCURS TO SEE ALL LIQUID.
A NEW COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE INTO THE STATE WITH THIS UPPER
SHORTWAVE FRI NIGHT...WITH THE FRONT BISECTING THE STATE AT THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM FROM SW TO NE. PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING BEFORE THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A PRONOUNCED CLOSED LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CANADIAN PROVINCES OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. OVER ARKANSAS, THROUGHOUT
THE THREE-DAY PERIOD, ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE NOTED. AT
THE SFC, A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE COMPLETED THE JOURNEY ACROSS
ARKANSAS FROM WEST TO EAST AND BE SITUATED PARALLEL TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE EAST OF ARKANSAS ALONG WITH RAIN EXITING
THE FAR EASTERN FLANK OF THE STATE AND MAKING WAY TO A MUCH DRIER
AND COLDER AIRMASS. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAKING WAY TO THE THEME OF
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.
A BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BEGIN FUNNELING TUMBLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE STATE IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLD AIR WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
AS FAR AS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CONCERNED. THE DURATION AND
MAGNITUDE OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE THE MOST INTENSE WE HAVE SEEN IN
QUITE SOME TIME.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR SHOULD ANTICIPATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY BE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING. LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS SHOULD EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 20S OVER THIS PERIOD. INTO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MID 30S
CLOSE TO LOUISIANA BORDER (FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS) AND RANGE INTO THE
UPPER 20S APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.
LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD STATEWIDE: INCLUDING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY, MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLDEST EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS WHERE SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS, LOWER TO MID TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS
(INCLUDING THE I-40 CORRIDOR), AND RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TEENS INTO
THE LOW 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY MORNING MAY ALSO WARRANT THE NEED FOR A
COLD ADVISORY ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE AS WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FALL TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS, INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS, AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER
TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A SWT DEVELOPS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE CONUS AND BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD WITHIN THE UPPER LVL FLOW
PATTERN. AT THE SFC, A SFC TROF WILL POSITIONED OVER THE STATE WITH
A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO BE POSITIONED OFF THE LOUISIANA
COAST WITH AN ATTENDANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND FLORIDA.
THE POSITION OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING SWT WILL
GIVE ARKANSAS A SHOT AT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, MODELS REMAIN IN AN OVERALL DISAGREEMENT HOW
MUCH MOISTURE CAN ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO ARKANSAS; MODEL DATA OVERALL
DOES SHOW A MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM AS SNOW TOTALS OVER THIS TWO-DAY
PERIOD WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH A HALF INCH OF SNOW IN MOST PLACE
THAT DO SEE SNOW AT ALL. THE CONSENSUS OF QPF REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS WITH MANY MODELS STRUGGLING TO EVEN POSITION ANY SNOW
IN ARKANSAS AT ALL WHERE OTHER MODELS DO HINT AT A HALF INCH OF
SNOWFALL ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE FORECAST
AT THIS POINT REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO POSSIBLE LIGHT
SNOW AND FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE MUCH LARGER IMPACT OF THE
DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT OCCUPIES THE STATE
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
REGARDING THE POSSIBLE WINTRY PRECIPITATION, CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES AS DETAILS WILL BE REFINED IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW REMAINS LOW, BUT THE CONFIDENCE FOR
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED IN QUITE SOME TIME ACROSS THE
STATE OVER THE PERIOD OF SEVERAL DAYS IS HIGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 55 31 53 37 / 0 0 30 60
CAMDEN AR 62 33 59 46 / 0 0 10 20
HARRISON AR 52 31 53 29 / 0 0 30 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 58 32 53 40 / 0 0 30 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 56 32 55 40 / 0 0 30 40
MONTICELLO AR 61 35 59 49 / 0 0 10 30
MOUNT IDA AR 60 33 55 40 / 0 0 30 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 52 29 53 31 / 0 0 30 40
NEWPORT AR 53 30 53 39 / 0 0 20 70
PINE BLUFF AR 58 34 57 45 / 0 0 20 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 55 30 55 38 / 0 0 30 20
SEARCY AR 56 28 55 39 / 0 0 20 50
STUTTGART AR 55 33 56 44 / 0 0 20 50
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...62
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