805
FXUS64 KLZK 162344 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
544 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDS WERE NOTED ACRS THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTN. A
BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FM CENTRAL TX, EASTWARD
ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION. THIS RESULTED IN WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVER MUCH OF AR. EVEN WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW COVER, THE COMBO OF
THESE WINDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, ALLOWED MID AFTN TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS RMN CONSISTENT THRU THE SHORT TERM, AS
NORTHWEST MID-LVL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO QUASI-ZONAL BY FRI AS A NEW
SWT APCHS FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACRS AR
LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT, BRINGING LOWER END RAIN CHCS (30-50%) TO
MOST AREAS.
POPS WL DIMINISH FM THE WEST FRI NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A
NEW CDFNT THRU THE FA. NO WINTRY WX IS EXPECTED AS THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WL HAVE ALREADY PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF ANY SUB-FREEZING AIR.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
A LARGE TROUGH WILL BE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO ARKANSAS SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SOME COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE STATE. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
BUT AGAIN MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS SYSTEM WELL. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW CENTRAL AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WIND CHILLS IN THE NORTH COULD BE NEAR
ZERO TO BELOW ZERO DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES W/ THE NEW TAF PD... VFR CONDS WL CONT WITH
MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ACRS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THRU FRI. LLWS WL REMAIN PREVALENT ACRS THE
N/WRN HALF OF THE FA, MAINLY IMPACTING NRN TERMINALS FRI MRNG.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WL PREVAIL THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD, THEN
INCRS FM THE SOUTH ON FRI, BCMG GUSTY, W/ GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 31 55 35 42 / 0 40 50 0
CAMDEN AR 33 59 44 54 / 0 20 10 0
HARRISON AR 33 54 29 36 / 0 40 30 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 32 54 38 47 / 0 30 30 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 32 56 39 47 / 0 40 40 0
MONTICELLO AR 36 60 46 56 / 0 20 30 10
MOUNT IDA AR 32 55 37 47 / 0 40 20 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 30 54 31 37 / 0 50 40 0
NEWPORT AR 32 53 37 43 / 0 30 60 0
PINE BLUFF AR 34 58 43 50 / 0 30 30 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 29 57 35 45 / 0 40 30 0
SEARCY AR 30 57 37 45 / 0 40 50 0
STUTTGART AR 35 57 42 47 / 0 30 50 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...72
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