533
FXUS64 KLZK 170831
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
231 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ONGOING ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE THIS FRI
MORNING...WITH TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. HOWEVER...SOME 40S WERE ALSO NOTED WHERE SRLY
WINDS WERE MORE PREVALENT. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE STATE THIS FRI...WITH SRLY WINDS INCREASING. MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TO
THE WEST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT...WITH CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS A RESULT. INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM WARMING TOO MUCH THIS FRI...BUT STILL EXPECTING GENERALLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING...WITH NRLY WINDS BRINGING IN COLDER AIR TO THE STATE.
HIGHS ON SAT WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS NWRN
SECTIONS...AND IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S FURTHER SE. THE COLDEST
AIR WILL ARRIVE SAT NIGHT AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE
LOWS ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE NW...TO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S TO THE SE...LOWS BY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
WIND CHILL VALUES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR
MOST AREAS SAT NIGHT...THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE WIND CHILLS DROP
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NW. EVEN COLDER CONDITIONS WILL COME IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
THE THEME OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WELL-BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN BOTH RESPECT TO HIGHS AND LOWS THAT WILL ARE
FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID-JANUARY
TRANSITIONING INTO LATE JANUARY.
AN UPPER LVL TROF WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN THREE-FOURTHS
OF THE CONUS WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST OF
THE CONUS LEADING TO NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW OVER ARKANSAS FROM
SUNDAY UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF AXIS MOVES OVER
ARKANSAS. AT THE SFC, A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MEANDER AROUND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS.
EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS UNTIL MONDAY EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING ON TUESDAY WHERE SOME LOW POPS OF LESS THAN
20 PERCENT HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LVL TROF AXIS WHICH COULD BRING A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. A TRACE AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SPOTS NEARING A TENTH OR TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF SNOWFALL, BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE A REACH WITH THIS SYSTEM
THAT WILL SEE APPRECIABLE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE STATE.
ON WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER ARKANSAS WITH A
COMBINATION OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
ARKANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SFC, A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES MAKING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A
SLIGHT-UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE BY
5 TO 10 DEGREES.
INTO THURSDAY AND THE FINAL DAY OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD, AN
UPPER LVL TROF AXIS APPROACHES ARKANSAS WITH A CHANGE FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ZONAL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SFC, A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION OF THE
CONUS WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH AND MID-SOUTH.
EXPECT LOW POPS OF AROUND 20 PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS FOR LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THAT WILL TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE MOISTURE WITH THIS
SETUP SIMILAR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN MOISTURE STARVED OVERALL AND THE
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN LIQUID AS TEMPERATURES AND THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT SUPPORT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION.
A FINAL TAKEAWAY AND POINT OF REFLECTION IS THAT WHILE WE WILL BE
EXPERIENCING A COLD AIRMASS THAT MAY LEAD TO THE NEED FOR COLD
WEATHER PRODUCTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE NEGATIVE DIGITS IN SOME LOCATIONS) JUST ONE YEAR AGO
WE WERE DEALING WITH A COLDER AIRMASS THAT DROPPED THE AIR
TEMPERATURE IN ARKANSAS TO BELOW ZERO IN PARTS OF THE STATE AND
SPECIFICALLY THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS AT LITTLE ROCK. COLD WEATHER
SAFETY WILL STILL NEED TO BE PRACTICED AND TIME OUTDOORS DURING THE
COLDEST PORTIONS OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 55 36 41 20 / 60 60 0 0
CAMDEN AR 59 44 51 25 / 20 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 54 29 34 14 / 60 40 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 54 39 47 22 / 40 20 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 56 41 45 24 / 50 40 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 59 48 53 26 / 20 20 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 55 37 48 19 / 40 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 55 30 36 16 / 70 60 0 0
NEWPORT AR 55 38 43 23 / 50 70 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 58 44 48 25 / 30 30 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 57 36 45 21 / 60 30 0 0
SEARCY AR 57 39 44 23 / 50 50 0 0
STUTTGART AR 58 43 47 25 / 40 50 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....74
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