388
FXUS64 KLZK 180006 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
606 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
CLOUDS CONTD TO INCRS ACRS THE NATURAL STATE THIS AFTN, AHEAD OF A
SWT THAT WL BRING RAIN CHCS TO MOST AREAS TNGT INTO EARLY SAT AS IT
PASSES ACRS AR. BREEZY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE NOTED THIS
AFTN, WHICH HELPED TO OFFSET THE CLOUD COVER SOME IN REGARD TO
TEMPS. MID AFTN READINGS WERE IN THE 50S STATEWIDE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM WL ALSO BRING A CDFNT THRU THE STATE
LATER TNGT AND SAT MRNG. WINDS WL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST,
ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO USHER INTO AR. BASED ON CURRENT TIMING
TRENDS, MOST AREAS WL SEE THEIR RESPECTIVE HIGH TEMP REACHED EARLY
IN THE DAY ON SAT, THEN EITHER BCM STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL OF THE RAIN WL BE EAST OF THE FA
BEFORE THE SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS ARRIVES.
A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WL PASS ACRS NORTH AR SATURDAY EVENING,
BRINGING A CHC OF SNOW FLURRIES. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WIND CHILL VALUES BY EARLY SUN MRNG ARE
FCST TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACRS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AR, WITH TEENS COMMON ELSEWHERE.
WL CONT TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF ANY COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES LATER THIS WEEKEND. AFTER STARTING THE DAY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S, HIGHS SUNDAY AFTN WL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 20S
AND 30S. BOTTOM LINE, PREPARE FOR MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDS IN
THE COMING DAYS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PROMOTE CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL POSE A RISK TO MAINLY
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM LIKELY BRINGING PRECIP TO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THE CHANCE FOR WINTRY
PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR BOTH SYSTEMS.
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE USHERED INTO THE STATE LATE
SUNDAY, LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DANGEROUS AND WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A FEW DAYS IN A ROW WHERE MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING.
THE QUESTION WITH THE TWO SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE STATE LATER NEXT
WEEK IS NOT A MATTER IF THE COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...IT IS MORE
OF A QUESTION ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEMS AND FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM, WHETHER OR NOT MOISTURE WILL MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW VERSUS RAIN. AS OF THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE, SOUTHERN ARKANSAS COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL-BELOW
AVERAGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL
LIKELY BE MUCH LOWER WITH SOME PLACES APPARENT TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW ZERO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
MOISTURE/CLOUDS REMAIN ACRS MUCH OF THE FA AHEAD OF APRCHG SFC LOW
PRESSURE TO THE W. EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THRU THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT PD TONIGHT, W/ MVFR CIGS ENSUING OVER
THE FA NEAR 18/06Z-18/08Z. COVG OF PRECIP SHOULD STAY LIMITED, AND
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FM W TO E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
FOLLOWING 18/00Z. GUSTY WINDS WL PREVAIL THRU THE PD, INITIALLY
SRLY, THEN BRIEFLY WEAKENING PRIOR TO A N/WRLY WINDSHIFT, ASCTD W/
THE PASSING SFC LOW. GUSTY N/WRLY WINDS WL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE SAT,
W/ SUSTAINED READINGS OF 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS
EXPECTED. LLWS WL BE AN AREA-WIDE CONCERN FM TONIGHT THRU LATER
SAT MRNG. MVFR CONDNS WL PERSIST THRU EARLY SAT AFTN, W/ CIGS
IMPROVING TO VFR LVLS THEREAFTER, AND MID-LVL CLOUD COVG REMAINING
PREVALENT OVER THE FA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 38 42 20 28 / 70 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 46 52 24 37 / 10 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 30 34 14 23 / 40 0 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 42 47 22 33 / 10 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 42 46 23 32 / 20 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 51 55 27 36 / 20 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 40 46 19 32 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 32 36 16 24 / 70 0 10 0
NEWPORT AR 40 44 22 29 / 70 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 47 50 25 34 / 20 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 39 44 21 31 / 10 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 41 45 22 31 / 50 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 45 48 26 32 / 40 10 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...72
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