775
FXUS64 KLZK 181711
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1111 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS
THE STATE, USHERING IN SOME VERY COLD AIR. BEHIND THE FRONT N-NW
WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED, WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT.
H500 TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES NEARLY ALL OF THE CONUS AND SFC RIDGING
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE TOWARD THE
STATE. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS.
FOR LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE STATE. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
LIMITED CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN TERMS OF THE EXTENT OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW WITH THE OVERALL EXPECTATION FOR UP TO AN INCH TO FALL IN
ONLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE OUACHITAS AND OZARKS. WHILE
SEVERAL SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA, ALL
AVAILABLE PROBABILISTIC DATA KEEPS AMOUNTS BELOW AN INCH WITH MOST
OUTPUT ONLY INDICATING UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. FLURRIES COULD BE SEEN ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
MONDAY:
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A LARGE, UPPER LVL TROF
OVER THE EASTERN THREE-FOURTHS OF THE CONUS AND A AMPLIFIED RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE WEST COAST REGION OF THE CONUS. AT THE SFC, A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STATE.
EXPECT ON MONDAY, FAIR AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES MAKING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE STATE WITH RESPECT TO BOTH LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
AVENUE OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE COMPARED TO NORMALS FOR MID
TO LATE JANUARY.
TUESDAY:
A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF AXIS WILL APPROACH THE STATE AND AS THE
AXIS MOVES OVER THE STATE A 100 TO 120 KNOT JET WILL BE PRESENT AT
H500 FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION EXTENDING INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY. ARKANSAS WILL BE IN THE LEFT-FRONT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS
FEATURE WHICH PROMOTES THE DESCENT OF AIR, THUS EQUATING TO SETTLED
WEATHER OVERALL. THE RIGHT-FRONT REGION OF THE JET AT H500 WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WHICH WILL PROMOTE
ASCENT OF AIR AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WHICH MAY BE IN THE FORM OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS SOUTH.
EXPECT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST OVER THE STATE. A LOW
POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS (NEAR THE
ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER) WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WILL BE A VERY LOW
CHANCE. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF ARKANSAS. AT THE SFC, A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SFC CONTINUING TO FUNNEL IN COLD AIR KEEPING
OUR LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER ARKANSAS
ON WEDNESDAY. A SECOND, UPPER LVL TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER
ARKANSAS INTO FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY, AT H500, ANOTHER 100 TO 120 KNOT
JET WILL BE PRESENT WITH A SIMILAR POSITION TO THE JET AXIS THAT WAS
OVER THE SAME REGION ON TUESDAY. AT THE SFC, A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. A SECOND DRY COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI
BORDER DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE STATE. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THIS THREE DAY PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE OUT OF THE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THIS PERIOD WITH LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE, BUT ONLY BY AROUND 5 DEGREES AS
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL GRADUALLY UPTICK FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
MOSTLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
N/NW AND COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 42 19 28 10 / 0 20 0 0
CAMDEN AR 52 25 37 16 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 31 14 21 7 / 0 40 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 47 21 32 13 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 47 23 32 13 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 54 26 36 16 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 47 17 32 10 / 0 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 34 16 22 8 / 0 20 0 0
NEWPORT AR 44 23 28 13 / 0 20 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 51 25 34 15 / 10 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 44 19 30 11 / 0 20 0 0
SEARCY AR 46 21 31 11 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 49 26 32 16 / 10 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...73
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