860  
FXUS64 KLZK 182005  
AFDLZK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
205 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025  
 
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR  
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND INTO PARTS  
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERALL, WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT  
EXPECTED AND ONLY A DUSTING TO HALF-INCH IS EXPECTED. THE AREAS  
MOSTLY LIKELY TO RECEIVE ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS. FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL LOCATIONS BUT  
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THIS WEAK  
DISTURBANCE WITH WELL-BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE  
STATE. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD...ESPECIALLY WHEN  
FACTORING IN THE WIND CHILL VALUES.  
 
AS MENTIONED ABOVE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET IN THE SHORT  
TERM WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BY  
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO  
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR  
SOME NORTH AND NORTH-CENTRAL LOCATIONS AS APPARENT TEMPERATURES DROP  
BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025  
 
A CONTINENTAL ARCTIC AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE FIRMLY IN PLACE  
ACROSS ARKANSAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HIGHS ON  
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS ARKANSAS AS CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVENTS TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP. THIS LARGE  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH  
TUESDAY BEFORE SINKING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT SPREADING LARGE SCALE  
FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE AND THE ASSOCIATED CLEARING SKIES OVER THE  
STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED. THIS TROUGH ORIENTATION IS  
IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL WELL OFFSET TO THE SOUTH OF  
ARKANSAS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. THE NASCENT  
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THERE OVER THE  
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO PREVENTING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF FROM  
ADVECTING ONSHORE TO THE EAST. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEAST  
AND SPREADS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE GULF COAST OF  
THE UNITED STATES, THE WELL OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE LOW  
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION RELEGATED TOWARDS THE COAST, KEEPING  
PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE OF ARKANSAS. WITH THE ARCTIC  
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE, MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL IN  
FROZEN FORM, SO KEEPING TRACK OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM'S EVOLUTION WILL  
BE CRITICALLY IMPORTANT WHEN ASSESSING IMPACTS OF POTENTIAL WINTRY  
PRECIPITATION.  
 
AS OF RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT, QUITE IRONICALLY, NEW ORLEANS AND  
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA IN GENERAL HAVE A SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER CHANCE AT  
SEEING WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAN ANYWHERE ACROSS ARKANSAS. IT IS  
PRETTY WEIRD, BUT MAKES SENSE AS LONG AS THIS EARLY WORK WEEK UPPER  
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OVER THE UNITED STATES AS STRONGLY POSITIVELY  
TILTED AS ADVERTISED. THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF A POSITIVELY TILTED  
TROUGH IS THAT LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING  
FOR ASCENT STRUGGLE TO COUPLE, KEEPING BOTH EFFECTIVE FORCING  
MECHANISMS SEPARATE FROM ONE ANOTHER. ANOTHER FEATURE IS THAT LOW-  
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION TENDS TO OUTPACE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR  
ASCENT WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS OF WHERE  
IMPACTFUL WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO FALL. ANY DEVIATIONS FROM  
THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED BECAUSE A TREND  
TOWARDS NEUTRAL TILTING OF THE UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING IMPACTS  
FARTHER NORTH AWAY FROM THE COAST. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO  
TREND STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED, SO PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE  
CONTINUES TO TREND DRY FOR ARKANSAS IN TERMS OF ANY WINTRY  
ACCUMULATIONS.  
 
BEHIND THE EARLY WORK WEEK UPPER TROUGH, CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY  
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST  
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS GRADUAL WARMING TREND  
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO  
THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS ARKANSAS. ANOTHER POSITIVELY TILTED  
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY  
SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE. THE NATURE OF THIS FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY IS REALLY JUST A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY AIR AND THERE  
ISN'T REALLY ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT, SO  
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY WON'T CHANGE MUCH ON FRIDAY. WE COULD SEE SOME  
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL  
STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE STATE, BUT NO ACCUMULATION OF RAIN OR  
SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED  
TO OCCUR ALOFT OVER THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING  
SATURDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025  
 
MOSTLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A  
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE  
N/NW AND COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BATESVILLE AR 21 30 10 27 / 20 0 0 0  
CAMDEN AR 26 37 17 35 / 0 0 0 0  
HARRISON AR 14 23 9 24 / 40 0 0 0  
HOT SPRINGS AR 22 33 14 31 / 0 0 0 0  
LITTLE ROCK AR 24 34 15 28 / 0 0 0 0  
MONTICELLO AR 28 38 17 33 / 0 0 0 0  
MOUNT IDA AR 19 33 13 32 / 0 0 0 0  
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 16 25 9 25 / 30 0 0 0  
NEWPORT AR 24 29 14 26 / 10 0 0 0  
PINE BLUFF AR 26 34 17 31 / 0 0 0 0  
RUSSELLVILLE AR 21 33 14 30 / 10 0 0 0  
SEARCY AR 22 33 12 27 / 0 0 0 0  
STUTTGART AR 27 33 17 29 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...73  
LONG TERM....CAVANAUGH  
AVIATION...73  
 
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