782
FXUS64 KLZK 191723
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1123 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW/
FLURRIES MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN AREAWIDE. AS CLOUDS CLEAR AND DRY AIR FILTERS IN,
TEMPERATURES WILL EFFICIENTLY FALL THROUGH DAYBREAK. HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 30S F ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE TODAY.
FOR MONDAY, A NEW H500 TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS WILL
HELP USHER IN ADDITIONAL COLD AIR AS A ROBUST AREA OF SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE PLAINS TOWARD ARKANSAS.
THIS SETUP WILL LEAD TO LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY COLD AIR.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON MONDAY, BUT WILL STILL BE ACTIVE ENOUGH
TO INFLUENCE WIND CHILL VALUES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
TUESDAY:
A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF AXIS WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. AS THIS TROF AXIS MOVES OVER THE STATE A 100+
KNOT JET AXIS WILL BE PRESENT AT H500 FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION
EXTENDING INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. ARKANSAS WILL BE IN THE
LEFT-FRONT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE WHICH PROMOTES THE
SINKING OF AIR, THUS EQUATING TO SETTLED WEATHER OVERALL. THE RIGHT-
FRONT REGION OF THE JET AT H500 WILL BE POSITIONED OVER LOUISIANA
AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE RISING OF AIR AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER WHICH MAY BE IN THE FORM OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS SOUTH.
EXPECT OVERALL FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST OVER THE STATE. A LOW
POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS (NEAR THE
ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA BORDER) WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WILL BE A VERY LOW
CHANCE. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF ARKANSAS. AT THE SFC, A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SFC CONTINUING TO FUNNEL IN COLD AIR
KEEPING OUR LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER ARKANSAS
ON WEDNESDAY. A SECOND, UPPER LVL TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER
ARKANSAS INTO FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY, AT H500, ANOTHER 100+ KNOT JET AXIS
WILL BE PRESENT WITH A SIMILAR POSITION TO THE JET AXIS THAT WAS
OVER THE SAME REGION ON TUESDAY. INTO SATURDAY, A SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE EQUATING TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY. AT THE SFC, A TANDEM
OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DESPITE THE FROPA, COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE STATE AS THE AIR-MASS BEHIND
THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE STATE. SKY
CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THIS FOUR DAY PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE OUT OF THE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THIS PERIOD WITH LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE, BUT ONLY BY AROUND 5 DEGREES BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO NORMAL VALUES FOR LATE
JANUARY ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF PERIOD. A
NORTHERLY SURFACE AT 10-20KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z, WHILE A
NORTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT <=8KTS DURING THE LAST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 30 10 26 15 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 37 16 34 20 / 0 0 0 20
HARRISON AR 22 8 24 12 / 0 0 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 33 15 30 19 / 0 0 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 33 15 29 19 / 0 0 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 36 17 33 19 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 33 13 31 17 / 0 0 10 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 25 9 25 13 / 0 0 10 10
NEWPORT AR 30 13 25 19 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 34 16 30 21 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 33 14 29 18 / 0 0 10 10
SEARCY AR 32 13 28 17 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 33 17 28 22 / 0 0 0 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...55
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