510
FXUS64 KLZK 192040
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
240 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
COLD, AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
20Z SURFACE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN SALINA AND TOPEKA KANSAS. THIS FEATURE WAS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE GUSTY, NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES AT 20Z WERE AVERAGING 20-25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD TROFFING
DURING THIS PERIOD. DEEPENING ENERGY IN THIS FLOW WILL APPROACH
THE MID SOUTH AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A STRONG OVERALL AGEOSTROPHIC
RESPONSE TO THIS ENERGY WILL OCCUR ACCORDINGLY. THE FOCUS FOR
IMPACT WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A A LOW CHANCE (<20 %)
FOR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS ON
TUESDAY, BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND
WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS
TO APPROACH THE STATE BY SATURDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING MORE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE DANGEROUS
FOR ANYONE STAYING OUTSIDE FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME. DON'T FORGET TO
BRING IN YOUR PETS INSIDE AT NIGHT!
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW AVERAGE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF PERIOD. A
NORTHERLY SURFACE AT 10-20KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z, WHILE A
NORTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL AT <=8KTS DURING THE LAST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 10 26 15 27 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 16 34 20 34 / 0 0 20 10
HARRISON AR 8 24 10 23 / 0 10 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 15 30 19 31 / 0 10 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 15 29 19 30 / 0 10 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 17 33 20 33 / 0 0 10 20
MOUNT IDA AR 13 31 16 32 / 0 10 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 9 25 11 24 / 0 10 10 0
NEWPORT AR 13 25 19 26 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 16 30 20 31 / 0 0 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 14 29 17 31 / 0 10 10 0
SEARCY AR 13 28 16 29 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 17 28 21 30 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...55
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