062
FXUS64 KLZK 201718
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1118 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AS
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS AN EMBEDDED SW TO
NE ORIENTED SWT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST US
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY TO THE WEST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA. THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT LOCALLY FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO BE
SEEN ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS. HOWEVER, VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR AND POPS REMAIN <20% WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOR
NOW, THE FORECAST INCLUDES A MENTION OF FLURRIES.
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH, SFC RIDGING
WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE STATE AND VERY COLD AIR WILL BE SEEN
AGAIN ON TUESDAY. WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TUESDAY MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS, SOME
BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY:
AT H500, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAKE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW OVER
ARKANSAS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY, A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROF AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE WITH ZONAL FLOW
TRANSITIONING BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE. AT THE SFC,
A TANDEM OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. IN
FACT SO QUICKLY, THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SFC WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SFC WINDS THAT
WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THESE FEATURES IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE AS
THE PROFILE OF WINDS ALOFT TO SFC WINDS WILL NOT SUPPORT A CHANGE OF
TEMPERATURE BEHIND THESE FRONTS.
EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE OVER THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE; HOWEVER, BY FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A TREND OF INCREASING TO VALUES THAT ARE
NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY:
AT H500, A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE WITH A SWT EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE FLOW PATTERN NEARING THE STATE ON SATURDAY. AT THE SFC, A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND MOVE
INTO THE STATE ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO RETURN TO ARKANSAS
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE OF POP CHANCES
THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE STATE. IT REMAINS TOO FAR IN ADVANCE TO NAIL DOWN ANY
SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT, BUT MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUES TO
SHOW AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND
STATEWIDE AND ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS LIQUID. INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO VALUES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH LOW
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT,
SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
STATE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS, THEREFORE, KEPT OUT OF TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY REMAIN LIGHT AND BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 26 14 27 13 / 0 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 34 21 34 14 / 0 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 25 8 23 15 / 10 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 29 18 31 15 / 10 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 28 19 29 15 / 10 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 33 21 33 15 / 0 10 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 29 16 32 13 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 25 10 23 14 / 10 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 25 18 26 15 / 0 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 30 21 31 15 / 0 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 29 16 30 14 / 10 10 0 0
SEARCY AR 27 16 28 12 / 0 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 28 21 29 17 / 0 10 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...73
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