329
FXUS64 KLZK 202358
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
558 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, MOSTLY CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THIS EVENING A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE...WHILE
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED, SOME SNOW FLURRIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THAT OCCUR WILL LIKELY BE A
DUSTING ALONG ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES.
CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY MORNING AND LAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN.
WELL-BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING MORE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE DANGEROUS
FOR ANYONE STAYING OUTSIDE FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME. DON'T FORGET TO
BRING IN YOUR PETS INSIDE AT NIGHT!
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW AVERAGE
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
START OF THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH ARKANSAS SITTING AT THE BASE OF A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DRY WEATHER WILL BE SEEN WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM AND RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER PATTERN
BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED. AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
NORTHERN ARKANSAS, SOME FLURRIES COULD BE SEEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING IN EXTREME NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AT THIS POINT, THE NBM
AND WPC ARE NOT HINTING AT THIS, HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST, WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
SEEN. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
STORM SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND BRING A RETURN OF RAIN
CHANCES TO THE FORECAST THE END OF THE LONG TERM. BEYOND THE LONG
TERM THE QUESTION EXISTS IF SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS IT DEPARTS THE STATE...BUT
WITH THAT BEING 8-9 DAYS AWAY EXPECT FORECAST UPDATES IN THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER
5KFT CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY. A FEW SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CNTRL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
BUT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AT MOST, MAYBE TEMPORARY
MVFR VIS. SKC CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON TUES WITH NRLY
WINDS CONTINUING AT AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 13 26 13 38 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 20 34 15 43 / 10 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 8 23 15 38 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 18 31 16 40 / 20 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 18 30 16 40 / 20 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 20 33 15 41 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 15 32 15 42 / 20 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 8 22 13 38 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 17 24 16 36 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 20 30 16 40 / 20 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 16 30 15 42 / 10 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 16 28 12 40 / 20 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 20 29 18 38 / 20 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...70
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