558
FXUS64 KLZK 160004
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
604 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACK ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE STATE. THIS RAIN IS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH HEAVY
SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. THIS LINE, CURRENTLY SITUATED TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE I30 AND US 67 CORRIDOR, WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
TOWARDS THE EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS LINE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES NO BEING RULED OUT. THE
GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AS THIS
IS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
LOOKING AT 20Z OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE STATE...SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS
IS OBSERVING THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WITH LLQ SITTING AT
78/64, PBF SITTING AT 78/63, AND CDH SITTING AT 77/64. COMPARE THIS
TO LIT SITTING AT 49/48 AND HOT SITTING AT 50/48...IT IS CLEAR WHERE
THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS LOCATED.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORT WINDOW FOR
SOME BRIEF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE STATE. ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW END
AND WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW AN INCH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT
PROMOTING CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE NICE ACROSS THE STATE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE STATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE. THIS NEXT SYSTEM COULD GET MESSY ACROSS THE
STATE BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS.
RATHER THAN GETTING MOSTLY SNOW LIKE IN MID-JANUARY, THIS SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO HAVE A "WARM AIR ALOFT" PROBLEM.
THIS MEANS FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET COULD BE THE PROMINENT PRECIP
TYPES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE THE COLDEST AIR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN. BY
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MOST LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...AT LEAST BRIEFLY...BEFORE THE SYSTEM PUSHES
OUT OF THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NOW WHAT MOST PEOPLE WANTED TO KNOW...HOW MUCH AM I GOING TO GET?
CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL AND FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LOW AT THIS
TIME AS MODELS CONTINUE TO MERGE ON A SOLUTION. AS OF THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE, THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS WHERE THREE TO SIX INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS
YOU MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, CONFIDENCE DECREASES
AS IT IS UNSURE HOW LONG THE WARM AIR ALOFT COULD REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE REASON THIS IS SO IMPORTANT IS BECAUSE THE MORE WARM AIR ALOFT MEANS
THE MORE FREEZING RAIN AND LESS SNOW FOR THESE AREAS. CENTRAL
ARKANSAS COULD SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET AND SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW/SLEET. WITH THAT SAID,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS COULD SEE UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH...POSSIBLY MORE IN ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK IN FOR THE LATEST ON SNOWFALL AND
FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS AS THESE AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO ADJUST UP AND
DOWN AS MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO RESOLVE THIS EVENT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY PROMOTING CALM
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID,
WELL-BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS COLD ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM, DANGEROUS COLD AND WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WITH
NORTHERN LOCATIONS EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO THAT ZERO DEGREE MARK.
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHERN AND SOME
CENTRAL LOCATIONS.
ADDITIONALLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL NOT FEEL MUCH WARMER
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 30S AND WIND
CHILLS FEELING SLIGHTLY COLDER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO MID
30S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 30S EARLY IN THE
FORECAST BEFORE GETTING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
SHRA/TSRA WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES AS A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT AT KPBF AND KLLQ. MOSTLY LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ADDITIONALLY,
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME
NW AND INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 58 28 39 20 / 100 40 0 0
CAMDEN AR 71 33 47 26 / 100 50 0 0
HARRISON AR 55 21 32 18 / 70 60 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 61 29 44 23 / 100 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 64 31 44 24 / 100 40 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 75 36 48 27 / 90 90 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 61 26 43 23 / 100 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 55 23 34 18 / 70 50 0 0
NEWPORT AR 57 29 39 23 / 100 80 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 70 34 45 26 / 100 90 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 59 28 43 23 / 90 20 0 0
SEARCY AR 62 30 42 22 / 100 50 0 0
STUTTGART AR 67 33 43 26 / 100 90 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ARZ008-016-017-024-
025-032>034-042>047-054>057-062>064.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...73
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