344
FXUS64 KLZK 161743
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1143 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER WAS CENTERED OVR
CENTRAL TN EARLY THIS MRNG. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP WAS NOTED
OVR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AR, BUT THIS ACTIVITY WL CONT TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST BY DAYBREAK. THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT WAS
CANCELLED EARLIER.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONT TO SHOW A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE ACTIVE WX
PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM
SYSTEM, THE MID LVL FLOW WL TURN ZONAL FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK. SFC HIGH PRES WL CONT TO SETTLE INTO THE MID- SOUTH
TODAY, THEN SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST ON MON. CLOUDS WL CONT TO
DCRS TODAY AS DRIER AND COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE FA. HIGHS
TODAY WL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS TNGT WL DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S, AS WINDS DIMINISH.
SFC WINDS WL VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ON MON, AS THE SFC HIGH
WORKS TO THE EAST. MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL START IN THE INCRS FM
THE WEST ON MON, IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT STORM THAT WL IMPACT THE FA
JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER DURING
THE TUES-WED TIMEFRAME, COINCIDING WITH AN ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAK OVER
THE SRN CNTRL US THRU THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME.
INITIALLY IN THE PD, H500 FLOW WL CONSIST OF BROAD AND LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL US, W/ THE BASAL REGION OF AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROF LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, AND AN ALBERTA-
CLIPPER TYPE PERTURBATION PIVOTING SWRD QUICKLY INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
LOCALLY, A STRONG SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PROGGED TO BE DRAPED FM S/W
TO N/E FM SRN CNTRL OK, ACRS NRN AR, AND N/EWRD INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY. STRENGTHENING SFC CYCLONIC FLOW WL BE NOTED OVER NRN TX
DURING THE DAY TUES, W/ THE SFC LOW EXPECTED TO ADVANCE N/EWRD ACRS
A REGIME OF MODEST LOW LVL WAA OVER THE FA, PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE. STRONG CAA ON THE N/WRN
QUADRANT OF THE SFC LOW WL AID IN DRIVING AN ARCTIC CDFRNT THRU THE
SRN CNTRL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW TRAJECTORY.
IN TANDEM W/ THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER FLOW PATTERN, THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTIFUL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IN PLACE TO DRIVE STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND ASCTD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE SRN US THRU THE NIGHT TUES,
W/ STRONG CAA UNDERCUTTING MODEST WAA AND WARM/MOIST AIR ALOFT OVER
THE OZARK PLATEAU AND GREATER EXTENT OF THE FA, RESULTING IN A SETUP
FOR FOR ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER EPISODE ACRS THE NATURAL STATE.
FCST CONFIDENCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL REMAINS HIGH OVER FAR NRN
AR, NECESSITATING A WINTER STORM WATCH W/ THIS FCST UPDATE FOR AT
LEAST THE NRN TWO ROWS OF AR COUNTIES. EXPECT CHANGES TO THE WATCH
AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY! OFFICIAL DETERMINISTIC FCST AMOUNTS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISE UPWARDS OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION OVER NRN AR W/ THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE AR/MO
BORDER REGION, ONE TO TWO INCHES ALONG THE AR RIVER VALLEY AND CNTRL
AR NORTH OF I-40, AND AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE INCH SOUTH OF I-40.
ENSEMBLE-MEAN AND MEDIAN (50TH PERCENTILE) SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING UPWARDS OVER THE PAST FEW SYNOPTIC RUNS, AND ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN COVG OF GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS AND MAGNITUDES
COMPARED TO NBM MEDIAN GUIDANCE. DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF/NAM
GUIDANCE IS STILL QUITE BULLISH IN FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS, E.G.,
NEARLY DOUBLE MOST ENSEMBLE MEDIAN VALUES, LKLY DUE TO HIGHER QPF
PROGS NEAR ONE INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT, WHILE OFFICIAL FCST
AMOUNTS ARE CLOSER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
SOME FACTORS TO MONITOR REGARDING SNOWFALL FCST TRENDS WL BE QPF
TRENDS, WHICH HAVE BEEN UPWARDS AS WELL, AND IF FCST QPF CONTINUES
TO INCREASE, HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OVERALL WL BE POSSIBLE.
INTERMITTENT PDS OF MIXED PRECIP AND SLEET EARLY ON TUES COULD ALSO
HINDER HIGHER SNOW TOTALS, W/ MORE FAVORABLE TROPOSPHERIC CAA AND
THERMAL PROFILES NOT DEVELOPING OVER NRN AR UNTIL AFTER 00Z TUES
NIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO SNOWFALL, A BROAD TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED PRECIP,
INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET, WL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST THE
LOWER TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE AS THE SFC CDFRNT MOVES THRU THE
REGION. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACRS
NRN AR AS THE COLD AIR FIRST STARTS MOVING IN TUES NIGHT. MOST FCST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL INDICATIVE OF FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILES FOR
FREEZING RAIN THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD, W/ CAA EVENTUALLY LEADING TO P-
TYPES TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW AND SLEET BY WED MRNG, AT LEAST
ACRS CNTRL AR. FAR SRN AR MAY NOT BE AS FORTUNATE AND COULD SEE
PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN W/ A SMALLER WINDOW OF RAIN/SLEET MIXED IN
TOWARDS WED MRNG. NOTE THAT THE RATE OF THE TRANSITION WL LARGELY
DEPEND ON THE RATE OF THE SFC FRNT AND LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CAA.
THERE IS STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE IN REGARD TO ICE ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS, W/ CURRENT NBM MEDIAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A LARGE PORTION
OF THE STATE SEEING A LIGHT GLAZE AT MINIMUM, W/ GREATER ICE
ACCRUALS CLOSER TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ACRS CNTRL TO SRN AR. HIGHER
TERRAIN REGIONS OF THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE A HIGHER CEILING
OF ICE ACCRUALS NEAR ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
THIS SYSTEM CERTAINLY STILL HAS A HIGH CEILING TO CAUSE MORE
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS, PARTICULARLY FOR MORNING COMMUTES AND GENERAL
TRAVEL ON WED MRNG. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE W/ AR WINTER WX EVENTS,
LOCALLY ENHANCED ACCUMULATIONS OF BOTH SNOW AND ICE COULD BE SEEN IN
MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS, AND RESULT IN MORE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL OR INFRASTRUCTURE AS WELL.
IN THE WAKE OF WINTER WEATHER DURING THE TUES-WED PD, ARCTIC AIR WL
BECOME THE MAIN HEADLINE, W/ SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AND WELL BELOW-
NORMAL LOW TEMPS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE WED THRU FRI MRNGS. LATEST
BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF NRN AR WL SEE SINGLE DIGIT TEMPS
NEAR ZERO OR BELOW ZERO DEGREES, PARTICULARLY ON WED AND THURS
MRNGS, AND COINCIDE W/ WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING TO -10 TO -15
DEGREES. ELSEWHERE IN THE STATE, OVER CNTRL TO SRN AR, LOW TEMPS IN
THE TEENS AND WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO
DEGREES ARE FCST THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE TO HOLD, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WL LKLY BE NEEDED
FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE FA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS STILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTEROON HOURS. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY WITH MOST TERMINALS IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY BEFORE BECOMING
OUT OF THE N/NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 39 21 40 24 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 48 25 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 32 18 41 23 / 20 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 43 24 47 29 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 44 25 44 29 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 47 27 49 33 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 43 23 49 29 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 34 18 39 23 / 20 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 39 24 39 26 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 45 26 46 31 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 43 23 46 29 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 41 23 42 26 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 43 27 44 31 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARZ004>008-014-015-017-103-112-113-203-212-213-313.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...73
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