456
FXUS64 KLZK 162018
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
218 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE STATE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE STATE BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP. RATHER THAN
GETTING MOSTLY SNOW LIKE IN MID-JANUARY, THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
HAVE A WARM AIR ALOFT PROBLEM.
THIS MEANS FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET COULD BE THE PROMINENT PRECIP
TYPES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE THE COLDEST AIR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN. BY
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MOST LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...AT LEAST BRIEFLY...BEFORE THE SYSTEM PUSHES
OUT OF THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NOW WHAT MOST PEOPLE WANT TO KNOW...HOW MUCH AM I GOING TO GET?
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LOW AT
THIS TIME AS MODELS CONTINUE TO MERGE ON A SOLUTION. AS OF THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE, THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS WHERE FOUR TO SIX INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS
YOU MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, CONFIDENCE DECREASES
AS IT IS UNSURE HOW LONG THE WARM AIR ALOFT COULD REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE REASON THIS IS SO IMPORTANT IS BECAUSE THE MORE WARM AIR
ALOFT MEANS THE MORE FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET AND LESS SNOW FOR
THESE AREAS. CENTRAL ARKANSAS COULD SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
SNOW/SLEET AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
SNOW/SLEET. WITH THAT SAID, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS COULD
SEE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...POSSIBLY MORE IN ICE ACCUMULATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY PROMOTING CALM
AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID, WELL-
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS COLD ARE LIKELY TO MOVE
INTO THE STATE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
DANGEROUS COLD AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE WITH NORTHERN LOCATIONS EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO
THAT ZERO MARK. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL MUCH
COLDER. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND SOME CENTRAL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO MID 30S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH VERY
COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE. THE SFC RIDGE CENTERED WELL TO
THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL OCCUR
BENEATH H500 NW FLOW AS THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES EAST, TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER AND SKY CONDITIONS, SOME SPOTS ACROSS
NORTHERN AR WILL MAKE A RUN FOR BELOW ZERO LOWS THURSDAY MORNING.
SOME LIGHT WIND WILL REMAIN AS WELL, WHICH COULD PROVIDE WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 10 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER.
COLD AIR WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND AS SFC RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY MOVE
THROUGH ON SATURDAY, BUT PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO
AREAS SOUTH OF THE STATE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS STILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY WITH MOST TERMINALS IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY BEFORE BECOMING
OUT OF THE N/NE LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 21 40 24 32 / 0 0 0 60
CAMDEN AR 25 51 32 45 / 0 0 0 50
HARRISON AR 17 42 23 27 / 0 0 0 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 24 46 29 36 / 0 0 0 80
LITTLE ROCK AR 25 45 28 38 / 0 0 0 60
MONTICELLO AR 28 49 33 50 / 0 0 0 30
MOUNT IDA AR 23 48 30 37 / 0 0 0 90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 18 40 23 28 / 0 0 0 80
NEWPORT AR 24 38 26 33 / 0 0 0 50
PINE BLUFF AR 27 46 30 42 / 0 0 0 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 23 46 29 35 / 0 0 0 80
SEARCY AR 23 43 26 36 / 0 0 0 50
STUTTGART AR 28 44 30 40 / 0 0 0 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-033-034-103-112-113-123-203-
212-213-223-313.
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...73
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