414
FXUS64 KLZK 170909
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
309 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
WINTER WEATHER IS FORECAST ACRS MUCH OF THE STATE THRU THE TUES-WED
TIME FRAME, W/ SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED OVER THE
NRN PORTION OF THE STATE, AND MORE MIXED PRECIP INCLUDING SLEET OVER
THE CNTRL THIRD OF THE STATE. FREEZING RAIN AND SOME MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACRS THE CNTRL TO SRN PORTIONS OF
AR. IN THE WAKE OF WINTER WEATHER TUES-WED, ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED
TO SPILL INTO THE SRN CNTRL US THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK, W/
HAZARDOUS AIR TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES ENSUING OVER THE
NATURAL STATE.
DRY AND SEASONAL CONDNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FA TODAY, AS SFC WINDS
TURN TO BECOME SRLY TO S/ERLY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SFC CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLE, W/ HIGH TEMPS CLIMBING TO THE MID 40S AT
MOST LOCATIONS AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MRNG.
TUES, AN ANTECEDENT STATIONARY FRNT WL BE DRAPED FM W-S/W TO E-N/E FM
SRN CNTRL OK ACRS NRN CNTRL AR AND INTO WRN TN. THRU THE DAY TUES,
DEVELOPING SFC CYCLONIC FLOW WL BE MOVING N/EWRD TOWARDS THE FA
ALONG A WAA GRADIENT. PRECIP COVG IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER N/WRN AR
TUES MRNG AND EXPAND EWRD OVER THE STATE THRU THE DAY. WINTER
PRECIP, INCLUDING SNOW WL LKLY BE THE MAIN P-TYPE OVER FAR NRN AR W/
A TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED-PRECIP ACRS CNTRL AR THRU MUCH OF THE DAY
TUES. THRU THE OVERNIGHT PD, THIS TRANSITION ZONE SHOULD SHIFT SWRD
W/ COVG OF SNOW INCRSG TOWARDS CNTRL AR BEFORE PRECIP QUICKLY TAPERS
OFF EARLY WED MRNG FM N/W TO S/E AS ARCTIC AIR IS USHERED INTO THE
STATE.
FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS REMAINS HIGH
OVER FAR NRN AR, W/ PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH BEING
UPGRADED TO A WARNING W/ THIS FCST UPDATE. CHANGES AND EXPANSIONS TO
THE WATCH/WARNING AREA ARE STILL POSSIBLE THRU THE DAY TODAY.
OFFICIAL DETERMINISTIC FCST AMOUNTS INDICATE SNOW TOTALS OF FOUR
INCHES OR GREATER OVER THE NRN TWO ROWS OF AR COUNTIES, AND TOTALS
EXCEEDING SIX INCHES OR GREATER ALONG AND NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER
REGION.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS STILL A HIGH CEILING FOR
GREATER THAN FORECAST SNOWFALL OVER NRN AR, W/ NBM 90TH PERCENTILE
DEPICTING A SWATH OF 8-10 INCHES ACRS THE NRN THIRD OF THE STATE.
NOTE THAT THIS IS A MOST LIKELY WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR SNOWFALL,
WITH A 10% CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING THESE VALUES, OR A 90%
CHANCE THAT THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE EXCEEDED.
FOR THE CNTRL THIRD OF THE STATE, THERE IS STILL A MODERATE AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO MIXED PRECIP TYPES
LEADING TO LOWER FORECAST TOTALS. POINT FCST SOUNDINGS AMONG THE
17/00Z GUIDANCE ARE STILL INDICATING A H850-H700 WARM LAYER ALOFT
ACRS CNTRL TO SRN AR THRU THE DAY TUES AND EARLY PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT PD TUES NIGHT. FOR NOW, THE FCST WARM LAYER LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHAT WEAK IN TERMS OF DEPTH AND POTENTIAL HYDROMETEOR RESIDENCE
TIME, PARTICULARLY AS IT IS UNDERCUT BY THE STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASS.
THIS WOULD SET UP A SCENARIO WHERE MOST OF CNTRL AR COULD SEE MOSTLY
SLEET THRU THE EVENT BEFORE A COMPLETE TRANSITION TO SNOW ONCE CAA
YIELDS A MORE FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE CLOSER TO 12Z WED MRNG.
GIVEN CURRENT THINKING, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE INCH
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE STATE, W/ HIGHER
PROBABILISTIC EXCEEDANCE VALUES CLOSER TO ONE TO TWO INCHES (75TH
PERCENTILE).
REGARDING FREEZING RAIN, THERE IS STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE IN REGARD
TO ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS, W/ CURRENT NBM MEDIAN GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTING MOST OF THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE COULD SEE A LIGHT GLAZE
AT MINIMUM, W/ GREATER ICE ACCRUALS CLOSER TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
ACRS THE S/WRN PORTION OF THE STATE. HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS OF THE
OUACHITA MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE A HIGHER CEILING OF ICE ACCRUALS NEAR
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH (90TH PERCENTILE AND MOST LIKELY WORST CASE
SCENARIO).
PRIMARY IMPACTS DURING THE TUES-WED TIME FRAME WL INCLUDE
DETERIORATING ROAD CONDNS OVER NRN AR DURING THE DAY TUES.
DETERIORATING CONDNS COULD EXPAND TOWARDS CNTRL TO SRN AR AS PRECIP
INTENSITY INCREASES, AND IF ICE ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR. MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WL BE POSSIBLE OVER NRN AR BY WED
MRNG. MORE SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACRS S/WRN AR COULD LEAD TO
GREATER TRAVEL AND INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING WINTRY PRECIP EARLY WED MRNG, A
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WL BE SETTLING INTO THE MID-SOUTH. THE
CENTER OF THE SPRAWLING ARCTIC HIGH WL BE DROPPING SEWD THRU THE
PLAINS, EVENTUALLY PASSING TO THE NORTH OF AR LATER THIS WEEK.
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON WL IMPACT THE REGION,
WITH MANY LOCATIONS STAYING BELOW FREEZING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. LIFE
THREATENING WIND CHILL VALUES ARE FORECAST, ESP ON THU, WHEN THE
CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FA.
FCST LOWS THU MRNG ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR ZERO, OR EVEN A FEW
DEGREES LOWER (DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF SNOW COVER). LOWS
ELSEWHERE WL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. CORRESPONDING WIND
CHILL INDICES ARE FCST TO RANGE NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO OVR NORTH AR,
ZERO TO 5 BELOW CENTRAL AND SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. WE WILL LIKELY NEED
SOME COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOR PARTS OF
THE FA.
THE SFC HIGH WL CONT TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK,
ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO BEGIN MODERATING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NEW STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ACRS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CORRESPONDING
PROBABILISTIC DATA FOCUS POPS TO THE SOUTH OF AR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDS WL CONT THRU THE PD, AS HIGHER LVL CLOUDS STREAM ACRS
THE REGION. INDICATIONS THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM ACRS EASTERN
AR TOWARDS MIDDAY MON, POSSIBLY EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL PARTS
OF THE STATE DURG THE AFTN. LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, THEN BCM LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST MON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 40 25 30 15 / 0 0 60 100
CAMDEN AR 49 31 43 23 / 0 0 50 90
HARRISON AR 41 24 26 9 / 0 10 90 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 46 30 35 20 / 0 0 80 100
LITTLE ROCK AR 44 29 36 21 / 0 0 60 100
MONTICELLO AR 47 32 46 24 / 0 0 20 90
MOUNT IDA AR 47 30 36 19 / 0 0 90 90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 39 23 27 10 / 0 10 80 100
NEWPORT AR 39 26 32 16 / 0 0 50 100
PINE BLUFF AR 45 30 40 22 / 0 0 40 100
RUSSELLVILLE AR 45 29 34 17 / 0 0 80 90
SEARCY AR 42 26 35 17 / 0 0 50 100
STUTTGART AR 44 30 38 21 / 0 0 40 100
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ARZ004>008-014-015-017-103-112-113-203-212-213-313.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR ARZ016-024-025-033-034-123-223.
SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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