693
FXUS64 KLZK 172307
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
507 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE STATE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
STATE BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP. RATHER THAN GETTING
MOSTLY SNOW LIKE IN MID-JANUARY, THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO HAVE A
WARM AIR ALOFT PROBLEM.
THIS MEANS FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET COULD BE THE PROMINENT PRECIP
TYPES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
LATE-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE THE COLDEST AIR IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN. BY TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MOST LOCATIONS
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...AT LEAST BRIEFLY...BEFORE THE
SYSTEM PUSHES OUT OF THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NOW WHAT MOST PEOPLE WANT TO KNOW...HOW MUCH AM I GOING TO GET?
AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WHERE FIVE TO EIGHT INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AS YOU MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS,
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY ACROSS THESE AREAS AS SYSTEM
PUSHES AWAY FROM THE STATE. CENTRAL ARKANSAS COULD SEE ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW/SLEET. WITH THAT SAID, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
COULD SEE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...POSSIBLY MORE IN ICE
ACCUMULATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY PROMOTING CALM
AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID, WELL-
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS COLD ARE LIKELY TO MOVE
INTO THE STATE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
DANGEROUS COLD AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE WITH NORTHERN LOCATIONS EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO THAT
ZERO MARK. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
SOME CENTRAL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH VERY
COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE. THE SFC RIDGE CENTERED WELL TO
THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL OCCUR
BENEATH H500 NW FLOW AS THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES EAST, TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER AND SKY CONDITIONS, SOME SPOTS ACROSS
NORTHERN AR WILL MAKE A RUN FOR BELOW ZERO LOWS THURSDAY MORNING.
SOME LIGHT WIND WILL REMAIN AS WELL, WHICH COULD PROVIDE WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 10 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER.
COLD AIR WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND AS SFC RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY MOVE
THROUGH ON SATURDAY, BUT PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO
AREAS SOUTH OF THE STATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 507 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN SITES OF KHRO AND KBPK
CAN EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORY TO BECOME DEGRADED JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO MVFR CATEGORY, THEN DROPPING TO IFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR LOWERING CIGS WITH THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING JUST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING, FINALLY THESE NORTHERN
TERMINALS WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE HEAVY SNOW WITH VSBY DROPPING TO
LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ACROSS THE CENTRAL TERMINALS OF KHOT, KADF,
KLIT, AND KPBF WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WITH PERIODS OF
SLEET IMPACTING THESE TERMINALS STARTING TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SITES OF KHOT AND KADF, BY MID-DAY ACROSS THE TERMINAL OF KLIT, AND
BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SITE OF KPBF. FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TERMINALS AFOREMENTIONED WILL DEGRADE TO MVFR FOR
LOWERED CIGS. THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TERMINAL OF KLLQ, WILL SEE RAIN
BEGIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN AS RAIN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 25 29 14 27 / 0 70 100 0
CAMDEN AR 31 39 22 36 / 0 40 90 0
HARRISON AR 24 26 8 19 / 10 90 90 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 30 33 19 32 / 0 70 90 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 29 32 19 31 / 0 70 100 0
MONTICELLO AR 33 41 23 34 / 0 20 90 0
MOUNT IDA AR 30 33 18 33 / 0 80 90 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 23 27 9 21 / 10 90 100 0
NEWPORT AR 27 31 15 25 / 0 60 100 0
PINE BLUFF AR 30 37 20 30 / 0 40 100 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 29 33 17 31 / 0 80 90 0
SEARCY AR 26 32 16 29 / 0 70 100 0
STUTTGART AR 30 35 19 28 / 0 40 100 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-103-112-113-
121>123-203-212-213-221>223-313.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR ARZ052>057-062>064-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-
340-341.
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...74
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