834
FXUS64 KLZK 180552
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1152 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO IMPACT THE STATE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN LOCATIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
STATE BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP. RATHER THAN GETTING
MOSTLY SNOW LIKE IN MID-JANUARY, THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO HAVE A
WARM AIR ALOFT PROBLEM.
THIS MEANS FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET COULD BE THE PROMINENT PRECIP
TYPES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY
LATE-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE THE COLDEST AIR IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN. BY TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MOST LOCATIONS
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...AT LEAST BRIEFLY...BEFORE THE
SYSTEM PUSHES OUT OF THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NOW WHAT MOST PEOPLE WANT TO KNOW...HOW MUCH AM I GOING TO GET?
AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WHERE FIVE TO EIGHT INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AS YOU MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS,
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY ACROSS THESE AREAS AS SYSTEM
PUSHES AWAY FROM THE STATE. CENTRAL ARKANSAS COULD SEE ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW/SLEET. WITH THAT SAID, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
COULD SEE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH...POSSIBLY MORE IN ICE
ACCUMULATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY PROMOTING CALM
AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID, WELL-
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS COLD ARE LIKELY TO MOVE
INTO THE STATE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
DANGEROUS COLD AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE WITH NORTHERN LOCATIONS EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO THAT
ZERO MARK. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
SOME CENTRAL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE TEENS TO MID 30S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH VERY
COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE. THE SFC RIDGE CENTERED WELL TO
THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL OCCUR
BENEATH H500 NW FLOW AS THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES EAST, TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER AND SKY CONDITIONS, SOME SPOTS ACROSS
NORTHERN AR WILL MAKE A RUN FOR BELOW ZERO LOWS THURSDAY MORNING.
SOME LIGHT WIND WILL REMAIN AS WELL, WHICH COULD PROVIDE WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 10 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER.
COLD AIR WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODERATE BY THE WEEKEND AS SFC RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY MOVE
THROUGH ON SATURDAY, BUT PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO
AREAS SOUTH OF THE STATE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
EXPECT THE DEGRADATION OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
AS A MIXTURE OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN BEGINS TO IMPACT
MOST OF THE STATE TUE. AT THE NORTHERN SITES OF KHRO AND KBPK,
EXPECT CIGS AND VSBY TO LOWER TO AS LOW AS LIFR CATEGORY DUE TO
VSBY. KHOT, KADF, AND KLIT, EXPECT LIGHT SLEET WITH OCCASIONAL
TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THESE CENTRAL TERMINALS, EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORY TO LOWER TO AS LOW
AS IFR. AT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS OF KPBF AND KLLQ, FLIGHT
CATEGORY WILL NOT BECOME DEGRADED UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-103-112-113-
121>123-203-212-213-221>223-313.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR ARZ052>057-062>064-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-
340-341.
SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...74
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