726
FXUS64 KLZK 181217
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
617 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION, CLIMATE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
WINTER WEATHER CONDNS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACRS THE STATE FM N/WRN
AR INTO CNTRL AND ERN AR BY LATER THIS AFTN TO EVNG, W/ NOW MOST OF
THE STATE UNDER A WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE
EXPECTED ACRS MUCH OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THRU EARLY
WED MRNG, W/ SLICK TO TREACHEROUS ROAD CONDNS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
ACRS NRN AR WHERE GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES WL ALSO BECOME PROBLEMATIC VERY QUICKLY AS WINTER
PRECIP BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE.
LATEST OBJECTIVE SFC TEMP ANALYSIS INDICATED THE SFC 0C ISOTHERM WAS
DRAPED ACRS NRN AR, JUST NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR, W/ ARCTIC AIR
BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO NRN AR, AND SFC PRES RIDGING EXTENDING
N/EWRD FM THE ARKLATEX INTO N/WRN AR. THRU THE DAY TODAY, SFC
CYCLONIC FLOW WL BE MOVING E-N/EWRD ACRS THE FA, W/ COVG OF PRECIP
INCRSG FM N/W TO E. THE PAST FEW 24 HOURS OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED MARKEDLY COOLER FOR TEMPERATURES THRU THE DAY TODAY, W/ THE
0C SFC ISOTHERM EXPECTED TO LINGER MORE SWRD ALONG OR NEAR THE I-40
CORRIDOR, AND SFC TEMPS IN THE 20S ACRS NRN AR. AS SUCH, OFFICIAL
FCST SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED UP QUITE A BIT OVER THE NRN THIRD OF
THE FA, WHICH BETTER REPRESENTS THE 18/00Z SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE.
OVER NRN AR, EXPECT AN EARLY PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP ACRS N/WRN TO
NRN AR AS PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION, W/ AN EVENTUAL
TRANSITION TO SNOW BY LATER THIS MRNG. TOTAL AMOUNTS ACRS THE NRN
THIRD OF THE STATE WL RANGE FM 6 TO 10 INCHES, W/ LOCALLY GREATER
AMOUNTS NEAR ONE FOOT POSSIBLE ALONG THE N/WRN PORTION OF THE AR/MO
STATE LINE. GIVEN THE HIGHER TOTAL FCST AMOUNTS, PERIODS OF
EFFICIENT SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1-2"/HR WL BE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY BY THE LATER EVNG HRS TONIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN
SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH GUSTY NRLY WINDS.
OVER CNTRL AR, A GRADIENT OF MIXED PRECIP, CONSISTING OF FREEZING
RAIN TO SNOW/SLEET IS STILL ANTICIPATED, W/ PRECIP LKLY STARTING
OVER WRN AR BY MID-MRNG TODAY, AND QUICKLY SPREADING EWRD ACRS THE
STATE, REACHING ERN TO S/ERN AR NEAR 00Z TONIGHT. PERSISTENT MIXED
PRECIP WL LEAD TO MUCH LOWER SNOW TOTALS ACRS THE CNTRL THIRD OF THE
STATE, W/ B/W 1 TO 3 INCHES, PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-40, AND SOME LIGHT
GLAZING FROM FREEZING RAIN, W/ ICE ACCRUALS UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. ROAD CONDNS OVER CNTRL AR WL LKLY DETERIORATE QUICKLY
AS WELL W/ MIXED PRECIP LEADING TO ICY CONDNS, AND BY THIS
EVNG, TRAVEL COULD BECOME DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS.
ACRS SRN AR, COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED INITIALLY, PARTICULARLY OVER FAR
SRN AR, W/ MIXED PRECIP INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET ENSUING BY
LATER THIS AFTN TO EVNG. LIGHT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH,
AND ICE ACCRUALS FROM ONE TENTH OF AN INCH, TO NEAR TWO TENTHS OF AN
INCH ARE EXPECTED, AND WL LKLY IMPACT AREA ROADS AND BRIDGES QUICKLY
BY THIS EVNG. OVER S/WRN AR, THERE IS SOME MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ICE ACCRUALS NEAR ONE QUARTER INCH IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME MINOR
DAMAGE TO VEGETATION.
WINTER PRECIP IS LKLY TO CONTINUE ACRS THE STATE THRU THE OVERNIGHT
PD TONIGHT, W/ PRECIP COVG QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FM W TO E NEAR
DAYBREAK WED MRNG. IN THE WAKE OF PRECIP, ARCTIC AIR WL BE SPILLING
INTO THE FA, W/ THE FIRST OF A FEW CONSECUTIVE BITTERLY COLD MRNGS
EXPECTED ON WED.
AREA TEMPS ACRS NRN AR WL LKLY FALL TO SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO IN
SOME SPOTS. CNTRL TO SRN AR SHOULD SEE TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S. HAZARDOUS WIND CHILL VALUES WL ACCOMPANY THIS COLD ON WED MRNG,
W/ WC VALUES FALLING TO -5 TO -10 DEGREES ACRS NRN AR, AND WC VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE OVER CNTRL TO SRN AR THRU WED MRNG. A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE STATE, LATE
TONIGHT THRU WED MRNG. BITTER COLD IS SET TO CONTINUE INTO THE LONG
TERM PD, AND WL LKLY KEEP THE WINTER PRECIP THAT FALLS TODAY IN
PLACE FOR A FEW DAYS, AND COULD POSSIBLY EXACERBATE FCST COLD TEMPS
DUE TO A GREATER SNOW PACK OVER SRN MO AND NRN AR.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
THU STILL LOOKS TO THE BE COLDEST DAY OF THIS WINTER SEASON, WITH
THE EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.
FCST LOWS THU MRNG WL BE NEAR ZERO, OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AR, WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ELSEWHERE. OF
COURSE, THESE READINGS MAY BE EVEN LOWER DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW COVER. A NUMBER OF RECORD LOWS ARE IN JEOPARDY, MANY DATING
BACK TO 2021.
DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACRS THE FA AS WELL
THU MRNG. MUCH OF NORTH AR WL SEE INDICES RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F,
CENTRAL SECTIONS HOVERING NEAR ZERO, AND SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH.
THE SFC HIGH WL CONT TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND, TAKING THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC WITH IT. THIS WL
ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND TO COMMENCE OVER THE MID-SOUTH. MODELS
CONT TO SHOW A STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF AR SAT NIGHT AND
EARLY SUN. KEPT LOW POPS (20%) ACRS SOUTHERN AR, PER THE MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION. WL CONT TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
VFR CONDS THIS MRNG WL START TO DETERIORATE FM THE WEST STARTING
LATER THIS MRNG, AS A VARIETY OF PRECIP TYPES OVERSPREAD THE FA.
EXPECT SNOW ACRS NORTH AR FOR THIS EVENT, WITH SOME PL MIXED IN AT
THE ONSET. A MIXTURE OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WL BE COMMON
OVER CENTRAL AR, WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE SFC
TEMPS WL BE ABV FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY. PRECIP CHCS WL TAPER
OFF FM THE WEST OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD
THE END OF THE PD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 20: RECORD FORECAST LOW
HARRISON 12 IN 2021 -1
HOT SPRINGS 14 IN 2021 10
LITTLE ROCK (ADAMS FIELD) 9 IN 2021 11
N LITTLE ROCK (NWS) 17 IN 2021 10
MONTICELLO 15 IN 1978 14
MOUNTAIN HOME 16 IN 2006 2
RUSSELLVILLE 10 IN 2021 8
SEARCY 5 IN 2021 7
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-103-112-113-121>123-203-212-
213-221>223-313.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ052>057-
062>069-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.
SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM/CLIMATE...44
AVIATION...44
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