838
FXUS64 KLZK 182317
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
517 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
WINTER STORM IS BEGINNING TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S F ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S F ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A CORRIDOR
OF RAIN, FREEZING, RAIN, SLEET AND SNOW PERSISTS FROM WEST-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THESE AREAS HAVE HOVERED IN THE 29-33 F RANGE THROUGH THE DAY.
NORTH OF THIS CORRIDOR SNOW HAS BEEN A MORE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE EVENT. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO BE SEEN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. NEAR THE
MISSOURI BORDER, AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH A FOOT OR LOCALLY HIGHER.
SFC WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
SUSTAINED N-NE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
THROUGH THIS EVENING COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD
AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL. PRECIP TYPES WILL BECOME PRIMARILY
SNOW, TRANSITIONING FROM N-S THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
BIGGEST AREA OF QUESTIONABLE PRECIP TYPES EXTENDS FROM PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE
AREAS. TRAVEL WILL BECOME MORE HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL CONTINUE TO PILE UP. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WHILE PRECIP WILL HAVE COME TO AN END, BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE COMING DAYS AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE STATE. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
LARGELY BE IN THE 20S/30S F ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE NEAR RECORD-
BREAKING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. READINGS
THU AM ARE LIKELY TO DIP BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AR WITH SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS FARTHER SOUTH. WITH SOME INFLUENCE FROM LIGHT NRLY
WINDS, WIND CHILLS COULD BE COLDER THAN 10 BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
BE DANGEROUSLY COLD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP TO THE NORTH TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO ARKANSAS.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH WILL FINALLY EXIT,
AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE
MILD PACIFIC AIR AND A QUICK WARMUP LOCALLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 50S, WITH 60S EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY.
NO PRECIPITATION WILL BE NOTED IN THE LONG TERM. IT APPEARS THERE
WILL BE A STORM SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
THAT COULD SPREAD RAIN/SOME FREEZING RAIN INTO AREAS ALONG THE GULF
COAST. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEGRADE FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS
THE STATE OF ARKANSAS IN BOTH TERMS OF CIGS AND VSBY. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS OF KHRO AND KBPK, LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS TO BE
EXPECTED FROM LOWERED VSBY AND CIGS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SNOW AND FREEZING FOG PRESENT. FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVING CIGS TO
MVFR. ACROSS THE CENTRAL TERMINALS OF KHOT, KADF, KLIT, AND KPBF
EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORY TO DROP TO AS LOW AS IFR WITH LOWERED CIGS
AND VSBY DUE TO PERIODS OF SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW AT THESE
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS WINTRY ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS
AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE FAR SOUTHEAST TERMINAL OF
KLLQ, EXPECT INITIALLY RAIN THAT WILL CHANGEOVER TO A BRIEF
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN TUESDAY
EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL DROP
TO IFR FOR LOWERED CIGS. AT KLLQ, CIGS WILL LIFT MVFR AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL
GUST IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 12 23 2 22 / 100 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 20 32 14 33 / 90 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 6 15 -4 18 / 100 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 17 30 10 29 / 100 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 16 27 8 26 / 100 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 21 30 14 29 / 90 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 16 30 7 30 / 90 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 7 19 -3 20 / 100 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 14 23 5 22 / 100 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 18 27 11 26 / 100 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 15 28 4 28 / 100 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 13 27 3 25 / 100 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 18 26 11 25 / 100 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-103-112-113-121>123-203-212-
213-221>223-313.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-
062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-
221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ052>057-
062>069-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...74
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