219
FXUS64 KLZK 200544
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1144 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
H500 CYCLONE WILL WORK ITS WAY E/SE FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS
THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA IT WILL PROVIDE N/NW MID-
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STATE AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS. AT THE SFC,
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTH TOWARD ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
THIS RIDGE ALONG WITH SNOWPACK FROM LAST NIGHT'S WINTER STORM
WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE. FOR
TONIGHT, PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AR ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ZERO
WITH THE REST OF THE STATE SEEING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHICH WILL
PROVIDE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH
SINGLE DIGITS TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE.
SOME DAILY LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY FOR FEB 20/21,
WITH SOME POSSIBLY BEING BROKEN BY NEARLY 10 DEGREES. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
BEGINNING TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY, REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE FEBRUARY
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TO
BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH THE HIGH NEARBY, WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
THAT WILL NOT LAST LONG.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH WILL FINALLY EXIT,
AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME QUASIZONAL. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE
MILD PACIFIC AIR AND A QUICK WARMUP LOCALLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 50S, WITH 60S EXPECTED MONDAY AND
60S/70S TUESDAY.
THE PERIOD WILL GO BY LARGELY DRY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS A STORM SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
PATTERN WILL ADJUST BY THEN WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST, AND MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH ARKANSAS,
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM OKLAHOMA. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-054>057-103-112-113-121>123-
130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-
340-341.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-054>057-103-112-113-121>123-
130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-
340-341.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ052-053-
062>069.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...44
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