668
FXUS64 KLZK 212032
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
232 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
DRY CONDITIONS, WITH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION WAS NOTED ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS, WHERE 5000-6000 KFT CEILINGS WERE NOTED
MOVING EASTWARD. THESE CEILINGS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL ENERGY IN A FAST SOUTHERN JET STREAM FLOW. THESE CEILINGS
WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING; ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED SPRINKLES.
QUITE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY, WITH SOME AREAS REACHING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF TRACKING
ACROSS THE REGION AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE SHORT TERM AND LONG
TERM PERIODS. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EWRD
ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST. PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO WRAP
AROUND THE SYSTEM BUT POPS SHOULD DROP OFF SHARPLY ON THE NRN SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW. AS THE FORECAST STANDS CURRENTLY, ONLY LOW END
POPS MAY AFFECT FAR SRN AR ON SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION STAYING S OF THE STATE.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEPART THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
UPPER NW FLOW RESUMING OVER THE NATIONS MID-SECTION MONDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS TRANSITIONING TO THE SW
IN THE WAKE OF HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY ACROSS THE REGION, EVEN CLIMBING
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE DATE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 30S AND 40S FOR LOWS TO LOWER 60S TO MID 70S FOR
HIGHS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE FOR MANY GIVEN
THE WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OF LATE.
A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD DROP SEWRD ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN TANDEM PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW END POPS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST ACROSS MAINLY ERN HALF OF AR HOWEVER AT THIS TIME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. ON
THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER, RETURNING TO
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE DATE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AN
EASTERLY SURFACE WIND WILL PREVAIL AS WELL AT <=5 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 16 43 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 22 50 26 56 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 14 42 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 20 47 26 56 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 19 43 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 23 48 28 55 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 19 49 25 59 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 14 42 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 17 39 23 50 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 21 45 27 55 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 17 45 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 16 42 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 20 41 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...55
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