546
FXUS64 KLZK 221909
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
109 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
THE AREA FINALLY IS STARTING TO RECOVER FROM THE ARCTIC AIR AND
WINTER WEATHER THAT MOVED IN THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
CURRENTLY THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL
MELTING OF ICE/SNOW AND CREATE ONE MORE MORNING OF POSSIBLE BLACK
ICE ON THE ROADS. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FACTOR OVER THE NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF A FEW QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS
PUSHING THROUGH TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WE WILL HAVE A
QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE
AREA IS NOT EXPECTING MANY IMPACTS EXCEPT FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
OVER SOUTHERN AR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LESS THAN 0.1" OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED. THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WHEN THE
PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE DRASTICALLY AS LARGE SCALE RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE A
RAPID INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES STARTING MONDAY. EXPECT MOST THE
AREA TO BE IN THE 60S MONDAY AND 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BE 15-20F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO
ENJOY THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH 40 DEGREE DEWPOINTS WHILE THEY
LAST!
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO FLATTEN OUT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR AR WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. A LACK OF MOISTURE ALONG THIS COLD FRONT WILL LIMIT ANY
PRECIPITATION, BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW
WITH LITTLE CAPE AVAILABLE. THERE WILL BE A DROP IN TEMPERATURE
BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGH 50S INTO THE LOWER 60S AND A
BRISK WIND FROM THE NORTH, SO IT MAY FEEL RELATIVELY COOL
COMPARED TO TUE AND WED. RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER MOVE IN BEHIND
THIS FEATURE LEAVING THE AREA NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A LOWER CLOUD
DECK AROUND FL040 HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SW-W THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN TURN SOUTHERLY
TO VARIABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 24 54 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 28 54 30 65 / 0 20 0 0
HARRISON AR 24 55 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 27 54 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 26 54 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 30 53 33 62 / 0 20 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 26 58 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 22 54 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 24 49 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 28 53 32 63 / 0 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 25 56 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 23 52 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 28 51 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...75
AVIATION...75
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