273
FXUS64 KLZK 281102
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
602 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
CURRENTLY:
AS OF 3 AM CDT, A WIDESPREAD SCATTERED TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECK IS
NOTED MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE STATE OF ARKANSAS. CLOUD
COVER IS NOTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. LIGHT
RAIN IS NOTED TO BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS WITH GREATER COVERAGE NOTED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN TEXAS, BUT
MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WHICH SHOULD
ASSIST IN THE INCREASING OF LIGHT RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
FRIDAY:
AT H500, A CLOSED LOW AT THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING TROF WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS. A COMPLETE
UPPER LVL AND SFC TRIFECTA, WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST AND A SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WHICH IS
PROGGED TO BE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION OF
THE CONUS WILL VIA CLOCK-WISE FLOW ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO BE
TRANSPORTED UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO ARKANSAS ON
FRIDAY.
EXPECT AN INCREASE OF LIGHT RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEGINNING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND MOVING
INTO NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT:
A H500 RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH REGION OF THE
CONUS, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER ARKANSAS AND A DEEPENING TROF
APPROACHING THE AREA POSITIONED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE
CONUS. AT THE SFC, THE STOUT SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN
FIXATED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION OF THE CONUS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WITH CLOCK-WISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE WITH A
COLD FRONT ON APPROACH TO THE STATE OF ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON SUNDAY; HOWEVER THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY, BUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. ALTHOUGH, THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
ARKANSAS WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
MILD TEMPERATURES IN TERMS OF MORNING LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE SETUP OF OVERALL SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
OVERALL PATTERN DOES LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE
REMAIN WHICH OF COURSE, WILL HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST VOLATILE DAY IN
THE EXTENDED BUT AGAIN, MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT ANY SPECIFICS ON WHERE AND WHEN STORM INITIATION WILL OCCUR
BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS. A BLEND OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED FOR NOW WITH SOME CLARIFICATION HOPEFULLY
COMING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
PERIOD INITIATES WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
COMING RIGHT OFF THE GULF AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE AREA.
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT AGAIN, GUIDANCE IS NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SPECIFICS. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR STRONG
WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES WITH THE EASTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE CWA HAVING THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER BEFORE THE
THREAT MOVES EAST MONDAY MORNING. THE BIGGEST OBSTACLE TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN WILL BE THE CAP AND IF/WHEN IT BREAKS.
FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE NEXT
TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES WITH LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
GETTING UNDERWAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
TIME. GUIDANCE ALSO DIFFERS HERE ON WHEN THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE
REGION WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ONTO TO IT MUCH LONGER VERSUS ITS GFS
COUNTERPART.
SUNDAY WILL START OFF WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH
COOLER READINGS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT
TOWARDS TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY
THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
LIGHT RAIN IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE STATE OF ARKANSAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF 26 KNOTS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. EXPECT
CIGS TO DROP TO AS LOW AS IFR LATE FRIDAY EVENING LASTING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY ACROSS ALL SITES. VSBY ACROSS
THE WESTERN TERMINALS OF KHOT AND KADF WILL DROP TO MVFR LATE FRIDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
PRESENT AT ALL SITES, AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT
KHRO, KBPK, KPBF, KLLQ AND KLIT; ADDITIONALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS OF KHOT AND KADF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 79 61 73 64 / 30 80 80 40
CAMDEN AR 77 61 76 64 / 60 80 70 10
HARRISON AR 75 60 76 63 / 40 50 40 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 76 60 75 64 / 60 90 70 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 78 62 75 65 / 30 80 80 30
MONTICELLO AR 79 64 76 67 / 30 80 90 20
MOUNT IDA AR 76 60 76 64 / 70 80 50 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 77 61 75 64 / 30 60 50 40
NEWPORT AR 80 62 72 65 / 20 70 90 40
PINE BLUFF AR 80 63 76 65 / 30 80 80 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 78 61 77 64 / 60 90 60 40
SEARCY AR 79 61 73 63 / 30 80 80 30
STUTTGART AR 80 63 74 66 / 20 80 80 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...74
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