520
FXUS64 KLZK 281951
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
251 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
ACTIVE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON TAP FOR THE NATURAL STATE
THIS WEEK. TODAY HAVE SEEN CONTINUED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SITS ACROSS THE SE CONUS. THIS DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR AMPLE MOISTURE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON MONDAY.
THE MAIN STORY IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON
SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AND WILL
LIKELY BRING SEVERE WEATHER TO THE STATE. WHILE THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW, WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH, THERE WILL BE
AMPLE CAPE AND WIND ENERGY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONDITIONS TO
BE FAIRLY CAPPED TO START THE DAY, BUT MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS CAP WILL GIVE WAY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AND THUS INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE
WEATHER. DO EXPECT ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER TO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST OF THE STATE EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE STATE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER
MAKER MOVES THROUGH THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT THE 12Z
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. IT DOES APPEAR THE WIND ENERGY WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS WHAT WILL BE SEEN ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE AMPLE
CAPE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE WIND ENERGY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS,
THERE WILL STILL BE AMPLE INGREDIENTS TO PRODUCE A TORNADO...BUT
DO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
SOMEWHAT MORE CONCERNING IS THAT THE 12Z GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF AND SHOWS THAT THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
THE STATE AND LEAD TO MANY DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT EXTENDS BEYOND
THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 62 75 64 81 / 80 90 30 50
CAMDEN AR 62 78 64 82 / 90 70 10 30
HARRISON AR 60 77 63 81 / 40 30 40 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 60 76 63 81 / 90 60 30 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 63 78 65 81 / 90 80 30 40
MONTICELLO AR 64 78 66 84 / 80 90 10 30
MOUNT IDA AR 60 78 63 82 / 80 50 30 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 61 76 63 82 / 60 50 40 60
NEWPORT AR 62 74 65 81 / 70 90 40 50
PINE BLUFF AR 63 77 65 83 / 90 90 20 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 62 80 63 83 / 90 60 40 50
SEARCY AR 61 76 63 80 / 90 90 30 50
STUTTGART AR 63 75 66 82 / 80 90 30 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...65
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