099
FXUS64 KLZK 291140
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
AS OF 2 AM CDT, LATEST OBSERVATION SHOW LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF ARKANSAS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
STATE.
INTO SATURDAY, RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM VIA
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE WITH A STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER POSITIONED JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION OF
THE CONUS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH CLOCK-WISE FLOW ADVECTING GULF
MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE STATE.
SUNDAY REMAINS THE DAY OF HIGHEST CONCERN REGARDING INCREASED
CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER A LARGE PORTION OF ARKANSAS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST; DESPITE
THE PARENT SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL-NORTH OF
THE STATE INTO THE MID-WEST REGION OF THE CONUS, A WELL-DEFINED AND
EFFICIENT WARM SECTOR WILL OPEN UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF AIR
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL PEAK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
STATE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS RANGING INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
ARKANSAS WILL ASSIST AS A SURFACE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER.
LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM DATA VIA MULTIPLE MODELS FROM THE
00Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ARE IN COHESION OF A CAP IN PLACE ACROSS
ARKANSAS THAT IS FORECAST TO ERODE OR BREAK LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COHESION CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE CAP WILL BREAK ACROSS
WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY
TAKE PLACE OVER THE WESTERN-THIRD OF ARKANSAS AND BEGIN MOVING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. UNFORTUNATELY, STORM MODE LOOKS TO
REMAIN DISCRETE IN NATURE WITH A STRING OF SUPERCELLS THAT WILL PUT
ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ON THE TABLE ACROSS ARKANSAS: VERY LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW TORNADOES (SOME OF WHICH MAY
STRONG AND BECOME LONG-TRACK ACROSS THE STATE). IN LIEU OF THE
METEOROLOGICAL COMPONENTS THEMSELVES, THE MOST CRITICAL INGREDIENT TO
THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL BE THE LOCATION ACROSS
THE STATE WHERE THE CAP DECIDES TO BREAK AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP
BEGINS TO MATERIALIZE. IT IS TO NOTE THAT A FEW SHORT-TERM MODELS DO
HAVE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY WHICH
MAY HINDER INSTABILITY, BUT MOST DO INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY.
IF THE TREND IN LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION DOES CONTINUE
THEN I WOULD EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO RAMP UP AND CONFIDENCE TO
INCREASE IN REGARD TO A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS
ARKANSAS.
THE PARAMETER SPACE OF ARKANSAS WILL BE SET FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO
MATERIALIZE ON SUNDAY. LATEST METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ALL HAZARDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE. ALL OF
ARKANSAS APPEARS TO BE AT RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS; WHEREAS, THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ARKANSAS,
BUT IS FORECAST BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL, NORTHEASTERN,
EAST-CENTRAL, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF ARKANSAS. SHORT-
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ADEQUATE CAPE AND SHEAR AS A
BASELINE TO ANALYZE THE PARAMETER SPACE ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0+ DEGREES CELSIUS PER KM (WHICH WILL
PROMOTE VERY LARGE HAIL), MLCAPE OF 1,500 TO 2,000 J/KG ALONG WITH
EFFECTIVE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER VALUES OF 1 TO 3 (WHICH WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES, A FEW WHICH MAY BE STRONG),
AND STORM MODE WHICH IS PROGGED TO BECOME LINEAR EVENTUALLY WITH A
0-6 KM MEAN WIND OF 40+ KNOTS, MUCAPE OF 2,500 TO 2,800 J/KG, AND
EBWD (EFFECTIVE BULK WIND DIFFERENCE) OF 40+ KNOTS (WHICH WILL
PROMOTE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS). A REMINDER THAT THIS IS A QUICK
SYNOPSIS OF A FEW SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS AND EACH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUN WILL CHANGE THESE VALUES TO SOME DEGREE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY
WHICH WILL USHER ALL THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST
OF THE STATE AND CREATE A STABLE ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THE FROPA.
OVERALL DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY APRIL WILL RETURN
TO THE STATE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT TARGET OF
OPPORTUNITY RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A H500 CYCLONE WITHIN THE FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS.
INTO WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS AND IS PROGGED TO
BECOME STALLED AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY
AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DAYS LONGER (PAST THE OUTER BOUND OF THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION) INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE, AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
EXIST ON WEDNESDAY; HOWEVER, THE SPECIFICS REMAIN TO BE TOO FAR IN
ADVANCE AND LACK THE CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT, BUT THIS HAS BEEN A
DAY OUTLINED TO BE ANOTHER POSSIBLE WHEN ALL SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, THE LARGER CONCERN WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT
IS THE STALLING OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS ARKANSAS, WHICH WILL PRESENT
THE STATE WITH THE OPPORTUNITY TO EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PREMATURE RAINFALL TOTALS
AT THE MOMENT INDICATE A BAND OF 1 TO 4+ INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY
SETUP ACROSS A CORRIDOR WITHIN ARKANSAS, BUT EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
CORRIDOR ALONG WITH SPECIFIC AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THIS PERIOD REMAIN
TO BE DETERMINED. THE MAIN TAKEAWAY FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PRESENT THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE STATE TO RECEIVE AN APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE RIVERS TO RETURN TO FLOOD STAGE AND FLASH
FLOODING AT TIMES ACROSS THE IMPACTED AREAS. IT IS TO NOTE THAT
MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE REGARDING
EXACT QPF OR TOTAL RAINFALL OVER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE A TIMEFRAME THAT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST
WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION ENDING THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS LIFTING
TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT DROPPING QUICKLY BACK DOWN ONCE
AGAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 75 64 82 49 / 70 30 60 60
CAMDEN AR 79 64 83 52 / 40 10 40 80
HARRISON AR 77 63 81 41 / 20 40 60 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 78 64 80 49 / 40 30 50 60
LITTLE ROCK AR 77 65 82 52 / 60 30 50 70
MONTICELLO AR 77 67 84 58 / 80 10 30 90
MOUNT IDA AR 79 64 81 47 / 30 30 50 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 76 63 82 43 / 40 30 60 30
NEWPORT AR 74 66 81 50 / 80 30 50 80
PINE BLUFF AR 78 65 84 54 / 70 10 40 80
RUSSELLVILLE AR 79 64 84 47 / 40 30 60 40
SEARCY AR 76 63 82 49 / 70 20 50 70
STUTTGART AR 77 67 82 54 / 80 20 30 80
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...56
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