248
FXUS64 KLZK 292328
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
628 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM AS HI-RES MODELS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
WESTERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH ARKANSAS SITTING FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING TO THE EAST THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND MARCHING TOWARD
ARKANSAS IS FORECAST TO SET STORMS OFF IN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT WITH
THE REMNANTS PUSHING TOWARDS NW ARKANSAS BEFORE 12Z ON SUNDAY.
HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
DIE OUT AS IT PUSHES INTO ARKANSAS.
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, LATEST MODEL TRENDS SHOW THAT THE CAP
WILL BREAK FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH SBCAPE WELL OVER 1500 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, HOWEVER 0-1 SRH WILL BE FAIRLY LOW.
HOWEVER TOWARDS LATER IN THE EVENING, SKINNIER CAPE PROFILES WILL
BE SEEN AND SBCAPE VALUES WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS THE BETTER
HELICITY MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT THE BEST OVERLAP AND
THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCES FOR TORNADIC STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NE
ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE, DO BELIEVE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST OF THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, W/ A MIX OF SEVERE WEATHER AND POTENTIAL EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SET TO IMPACT THE FA. TUES WL ACTUALLY BRING A DAY OF BRIEF
SETTLED WEATHER AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EWRD TOWARDS APPALACHIA,
AND NEW LEE SFC CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS. A PROMINENT POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROF AND ASCTD UPPER VORTICITY MAX IS PROGGED TO
QUICKLY EJECT ACRS THE CNTRL US, IN A FAIRLY SIMILAR JUXTAPOSITION
AS THE MARCH 14 STORM SYSTEM, THOUGH THE KINEMATICS AND H500 HEIGHT
FIELDS SHOULD NOT BE TO THE SAME MAGNITUDE.
SIGNIFICANT AND RAPID POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE FORECAST, W/ A
BROAD WARM SECTOR EXPECTED TO EXTEND OVER MOST OF THE SRN CNTRL US
BY WED MRNG. FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF BULK SHEAR, INSTABILITY, AND LIFT
WL ONCE AGAIN PUT AR IN THE CROSS HAIRS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL, AS HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED BY THE LATEST SPC EXTENDED
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, WITH A 30 PERCENT REGION INTRODUCED IN THE DAY 6
OUTLOOK. MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR FOR NOW, AND WL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE COMING DAYS.
IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WED, THERE IS AN INCRSG
LIKELIHOOD OF PROLONGED AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE STATE THRU THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A FAVORABLE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PATTERN IS PROGGED AS
MOISTURE-RICH GULF AIR IS PULLED NORTHWARD WED, AND IN THE WAKE OF A
SEVERE WEATHER, A SFC FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACRS THE REGION, DRAPED
FM S/W TO N/E. A BLOCKING UPPER HIGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND SRN
ATLANTIC WL KEEP MEAN TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE S/WRN US,
RESULTING IN PERSISTENT S/WRLY H500 FLOW ACRS THE FA.
A FEW ROUNDS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL APPEAR POSSIBLE AT THE MOMENT,
W/ WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ASCTD W/ SEVERE WEATHER ON WED, E.G., A
WIDESPREAD SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCHES, AND A LOCALIZED SWATH OF 2 TO 3
INCHES OVER ERN TO N/ERN AR, AND THEN DAILY PERSISTENT RAINFALL
FOLLOWING THEREAFTER. BASED ON THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
QPF GUIDANCE, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD BE SEEN B/W THE THURS-SAT
TIMEFRAME, W/ 48 HOUR QPF PROGS SUGGESTING B/W ANOTHER 4-8 INCHES OF
RAINFALL (AND LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS) OVER PORTIONS OF AR
(VARIABILITY OF THE QPF FOOTPRINT OWING TO GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
SOLNS). ENSEMBLE ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ADVERTISING BULLISH AND
CONCERNING AMOUNTS (FOR ENSEMBLE OUTPUT) W/ CONSIDERABLE CONSISTENCY
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, WHILE GEFS GUIDANCE HAS ONLY RECENTLY (W/IN
THE LAST FEW RUNS) BEGUN TO HIGHLIGHT A MORE SIGNIFICANT MEAN QPF
FOOTPRINT.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS CERTAINLY STARTING TO RAISE GREATER CONCERN FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, THOUGH THERE IS STILL A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE PRIMARY AXIS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
DEVELOP, AND WL BE CORRELATED TO THE AXIS OF THE STALLED SFC FRNT.
THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE IS INCRSG ON EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
FLOODING CONCERNS, BOTH FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING, LATE NEXT
WEEK FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE STATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE THEN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS LIMITED TO NORTHERN TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR
CEILINGS CURRENTLY BEING SEEN WILL LOWER TO MVFR CEILINGS LATER
TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 65 83 49 66 / 20 40 60 0
CAMDEN AR 64 85 54 72 / 10 30 80 10
HARRISON AR 63 80 41 61 / 30 50 20 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 83 51 71 / 20 40 60 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 66 84 53 68 / 20 30 70 0
MONTICELLO AR 67 86 59 70 / 10 20 90 10
MOUNT IDA AR 63 83 49 71 / 30 50 50 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 64 81 43 62 / 30 50 30 0
NEWPORT AR 66 82 50 64 / 20 30 70 0
PINE BLUFF AR 66 85 55 69 / 10 30 80 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 64 85 48 70 / 30 40 40 0
SEARCY AR 63 83 50 66 / 20 30 70 0
STUTTGART AR 67 83 55 67 / 10 30 80 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...65
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