847
FXUS64 KLZK 300724
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
224 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
AS OF 2:20 AM CDT, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH WAS
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
FAR NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS HAS ADVANCED INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
ARKANSAS. THIS "LEFTOVER ACTIVITY" THAT PERSISTS INTO THE MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER INSTABILITY ACROSS THOSE PORTIONS
OF ARKANSAS WHICH EXPERIENCE THIS LEFTOVER ACTIVITY (LIKELY PARTS
OF WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO POTENTIALLY CENTRAL ARKANSAS). IN TURN,
THIS MAY WELL DECREASE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS A PORTION
OF THE STATE, ESPECIALLY WESTERN ARKANSAS. HOWEVER, THE ACTIVITY
NEARING THE ARKANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER HAS BEEN DECREASING IN
OVERALL INTENSITY. THE QUESTION THAT WILL DETERMINE SEVERE WEATHER
INITIATION LOCATION BESIDES THE CAP ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE
MAGNITUDE AND DURATION THIS "LEFTOVER ACTIVITY" REMAINS ACROSS THE
CWA AND STATE. A WORD OF CAUTION TO NOT LET THIS PARAGRAPH
PERSUADE YOU TO NOT TAKE SUNDAY SERIOUSLY AS A SEVERE WEATHER DAY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE CAN QUICKLY RECOVER FROM "LEFTOVER ACTIVITY",
BUT THIS DOES ADD A TAD OF COMPLEXITY TO THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE
LOCATION ACROSS ARKANSAS WHERE THE CAP DOES ERODE AND EXACTLY WHAT
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AT STORM INITIATION.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST;
DESPITE THE PARENT SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL-
NORTH OF THE STATE INTO THE MID-WEST REGION OF THE CONUS, A WELL-
DEFINED AND EFFICIENT WARM SECTOR WILL OPEN UP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MOST OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF AIR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL PEAK INTO THE LOW 70S TO
MID 80S (LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND HIGHER
TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE WHERE THE ACTIVITY VIA OKLAHOMA OF THE HAS
NOT SUPPRESSED HIGH TEMPERATURES) ACROSS THE STATE WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS RANGING
INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ARKANSAS WILL ASSIST
AS A SURFACE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM DATA VIA MULTIPLE MODELS FROM
THE 00Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ARE IN DECENT COHESION OF A CAP IN PLACE
ACROSS ARKANSAS THAT IS FORECAST TO ERODE OR BREAK LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COHESION FLUCTUATES A TAD TO EXACTLY WHERE THE CAP
WILL BREAK ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS OR CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY TAKE PLACE OVER THE
VICINITY OF WHERE THE CAP DOES ERODE AND BEGIN MOVING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. AT THE CURRENT TIME, IN LIEU OF THE
METEOROLOGICAL COMPONENTS THEMSELVES, THE MOST CRITICAL INGREDIENT
TO THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL BE THE LOCATION
ACROSS THE STATE WHERE THE CAP DECIDES TO BREAK AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP BEGINS TO MATERIALIZE. IT IS TO NOTE THAT A FEW SHORT-TERM
MODELS DO HAVE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS ARKANSAS ON
SUNDAY (GIVEN THE "LEFTOVER ACTIVITY" VIA OKLAHOMA AS MENTIONED IN
THE FIRST PARAGRAPH OF THIS DISCUSSION) WHICH MAY HINDER
INSTABILITY, BUT MOST DO INDICATE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND RE-
PRIMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE PARAMETER SPACE OF ARKANSAS WILL BE SET FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO
MATERIALIZE ON SUNDAY. LATEST METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ALL HAZARDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE. THE SPC (STORM
PREDICTION CENTER) HAS MODIFIED THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADOES TO
THE EASTERN-FLANK OF ARKANSAS AS A NOTED LACK OF SRH BETWEEN 0 TO 1
KM IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS; HOWEVER
A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS IF
THE CAP DOES BREAK, BUT TRENDS DO CONTINUE TO PUSH THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR TORNADOES ACROSS THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE STATE. AS
OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND THE ASSISTANCE OF THE LATEST HI-
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE THE MAIN THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON EXTENDING INTO SUNDAY
EVENING WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LAPSE RATES
FROM 700MB TO 500MB ARE PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.5 DEGREES
CELSIUS PER KM ACROSS THE STATE WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL VIA STRONG UPDRAFTS IN TANDEM WITH
MUCAPE VALUES PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 1,500 J/KG AND 3,800 J/KG
(MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON). ADDITIONALLY, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE STATE AS STORM THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE
PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF SBCAPE AND DCAPE IN THEIR FAVOR ALONG WITH HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS THAT CONTINUE TO INDICATE PORTIONS OF THE STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS ARKANSAS MAY BECOME LINE SEGMENTS OR BOWING
SEGMENTS WHICH ARE NOTORIOUS FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY
WHICH WILL USHER ALL THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST
OF THE STATE AND CREATE A STABLE ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THE FROPA.
OVERALL DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL
WILL RETURN TO THE STATE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A H500 CYCLONE
WITHIN THE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS.
INTO WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS AND IS PROGGED TO
BECOME STALLED AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH A CONDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STALLING OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE AND SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS IN
THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE GUIDANCE THAT FAVORS A POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK; HOWEVER, THE SPECIFICS REMAIN TO BE TOO FAR IN
ADVANCE AT THE MOMENT REGARDING HAZARD TIMING AND PLACEMENT ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS HAS BEEN A DAY OUTLINED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT DAY
ACROSS ARKANSAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER, THE LARGER CONCERN WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE, VIA MULTIPLE
MEDIUM TO LONG-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SOURCES AT THE MOMENT IS THE
STALLING OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS ARKANSAS PRESENTING THE STATE WITH
THE OPPORTUNITY TO EXPERIENCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. PREMATURE RAINFALL TOTALS AT THE MOMENT
INDICATE A LARGE AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE BETWEEN 4 AND 8+
INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY,
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW AGREEMENT OF THESE
NUMBERS AND EVEN POTENTIALLY HIGHER VALUES.
THE MAIN TAKEAWAY FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE STATE TO
RECEIVE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN A RELATIVELY SHORT
TIMEFRAME WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE RIVERS TO RETURN TO FLOOD STAGE
AND FLOODING OVERALL, ESPECIALLY IN PRONE AREAS AND FLASH FLOODING
AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA
AND ARKANSAS FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORY TO DEGRADE TO AS LOW AS IFR FOR LOWERING VSBY
AND CIGS THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ALL TERMINALS OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS IN WHICH WINDS MAY GUST
WELL ABOVE 40 KNOTS WHICH HAS BEEN CAPTURED IN TEMPO GROUPS AND PROB
30 GROUPS. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF KHRO AND KBPK MAY SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE FROM
LEFTOVER ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF OKLAHOMA. EXPECT SURFACE WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS TO BEGIN LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND HIGHER
VALUES AS MENTIONED ABOVE IN ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS MOST
TERMINALS BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING, BUT MAY LOWER AGAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY CONVECTIVE OR INCOMING CIGS CLOUD DECK AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 83 48 66 42 / 60 50 0 0
CAMDEN AR 86 55 73 46 / 30 80 10 0
HARRISON AR 78 40 61 41 / 60 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 83 51 71 46 / 50 40 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 84 53 69 45 / 50 60 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 85 59 71 48 / 30 90 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 84 49 71 46 / 50 40 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 43 62 41 / 70 20 0 0
NEWPORT AR 82 51 65 43 / 60 60 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 86 54 69 45 / 40 80 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 84 48 70 45 / 60 40 0 0
SEARCY AR 84 49 67 41 / 50 60 0 0
STUTTGART AR 84 54 67 46 / 40 80 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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