135
FXUS64 KLZK 302124
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
424 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SEVERAL HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENTS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WILL BE BRIEF...SO AS TO MEET DEADLINES.
THE FIRST HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT HAS COMMENCED. 20Z SUBJECTIVE
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A PREFONTAL TROUGH FROM HARRISON, TO
JUST SOUTH OF FORT SMITH. TO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXISTS TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. NUMEROUS
1.0-1.5 INCH HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PAST HOUR.
THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
LATE EVENING, AND WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALL HAZARDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS BEFORE SUNRISE.
ANOTHER IMPACT WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR MID AND LATE WEEK. THE
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID
WEEK. ENERGY IN THIS DEVELOPING FLOW WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY, PROMOTING ANOTHER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM EVENT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL, AND WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
FORECASTS UTILIZED CAM OUTPUTS TO DERIVE TSRA CHANCES AT FORECAST
SITES. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER FROPA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 48 67 43 73 / 50 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 55 73 47 80 / 80 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 41 62 42 72 / 10 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 50 72 46 77 / 40 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 53 70 46 76 / 60 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 58 72 49 80 / 90 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 49 72 46 78 / 40 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 42 63 42 71 / 20 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 50 65 43 72 / 60 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 54 70 46 78 / 80 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 48 71 45 77 / 40 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 49 67 42 74 / 60 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 54 67 46 75 / 80 10 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
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