677
FXUS64 KLZK 310545
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SEVERAL HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENTS WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WILL BE BRIEF...SO AS TO MEET DEADLINES.
THE FIRST HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT HAS COMMENCED. 20Z SUBJECTIVE
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A PREFONTAL TROUGH FROM HARRISON, TO
JUST SOUTH OF FORT SMITH. TO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXISTS TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. NUMEROUS
1.0-1.5 INCH HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED ACROSS NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PAST HOUR.
THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
LATE EVENING, AND WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALL HAZARDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS BEFORE SUNRISE.
ANOTHER IMPACT WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR MID AND LATE WEEK. THE
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID
WEEK. ENERGY IN THIS DEVELOPING FLOW WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY, PROMOTING ANOTHER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM EVENT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL, AND WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SFC BNDRY WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST AR, JUST TO THE NORTH OF A
KELD-KLLQ LINE. AN AREA OF STORMS WL CONT TO TREK TO THE NORTHEAST
IN THE VCNTY OF THE BNDRY, WITH COMBO OF VFR/MVFR CONDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HRS AT KLLQ. MEANWHILE, SCTD ELEVATED CONVECTION WAS
FORMING OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS, WITH PROB30 GROUPS MENTIONED AT
KLIT AND KPBF EARLY IN THE PD. DRIER CONDS RETURN LATER MON MRNG,
WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED.
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...44
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