399
FXUS64 KLZK 311734 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1234 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED ACRS SOUTHEAST AR EARLY THIS
MRNG, IN THE VICINITY OF A CDFNT. CAMS CONT TO SHOW THIS ACTIVITY WL
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE FA LATER THIS MRNG, AS AN ASSOCD UPPER TROF
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION, ALONG WITH THE FNTL BNDRY. ELSEWHERE,
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTD TO ADVECT INTO THE STATE BEHIND THE
FNT.
A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL SLIDE ACRS THE FA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WX CONDS.
HIGHS TODAY WL RANGE FM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S, WITH LOWS
TNGT FALLING INTO THE 40S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE WL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA BY TUE. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WL RETURN AND INCRS TUE AS A
NEW STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER EASTERN CO. MOISTURE/CLOUDS WL MAKE
A RETURN ACRS AR LATER TUE AND TUE NGT AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. RAIN CHCS WL INCRS AS WELL FM THE WEST TUE NGT AS A LEAD
SWT APCHS FM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WL BE THE START OF A UNSETTLED WX
PATTERN THAT WL PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BE FROM THE SW AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH FLOW INCREASING OVER AR ON WED. AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NE INTO THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY REGION ON WED...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SE
INTO AR WED INTO THU. CONVECTION WILL BECOME LIKELY AS THIS
HAPPENS...WITH SOME INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR CONVECTION.
INSTABILITY/SHR LEVELS WILL HAVE INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HRS ON WED WELL AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WITH ALL
HAZARDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...DETAILS
REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE SVR THREATS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOME PORTION OF AR
THU INTO FRI AS FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC
FRONT. UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL PASS OVER THIS FRONT...WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL WED THROUGH AT LEAST FRI. THIS SETUP MAY CREATE AN
INCREASED FLASH AND RIVER FLOOD THREAT BY LATE THIS WEEK FOR AT
LEAST SOME PORTION OF AR.
BY SAT...A NEW UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...
ALLOWING FOR THE FRONT TO LIFT BACK NORTH BRIEFLY ON SAT.
HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL DIVE SE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE FORECAST BECOMING
DRY BY LATE IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS ACROSS N AR TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON, VFR CONDTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME E/SE FOR TUESDAY. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ACROSS N/W PARTS OF THE STATE NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 43 72 64 79 / 0 0 40 90
CAMDEN AR 46 79 67 86 / 0 0 20 80
HARRISON AR 41 71 63 74 / 0 0 50 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 46 77 66 78 / 0 0 40 90
LITTLE ROCK AR 45 76 68 82 / 0 0 40 90
MONTICELLO AR 48 79 70 86 / 0 0 10 80
MOUNT IDA AR 46 78 66 76 / 0 0 50 90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 42 70 62 74 / 0 0 50 90
NEWPORT AR 43 72 64 82 / 0 0 30 90
PINE BLUFF AR 45 77 68 85 / 0 0 20 90
RUSSELLVILLE AR 45 76 66 77 / 0 0 60 90
SEARCY AR 41 73 63 81 / 0 0 40 90
STUTTGART AR 46 75 68 84 / 0 0 20 90
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...67
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