879
FXUS64 KLZK 312316
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
616 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SFC RIDGE POSITIONED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WILL EXTEND SOUTH
INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOL TEMPERATURES AND
CALM CONDITIONS. THE COLDEST READINGS ARE LIKELY FROM NORTH-
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL INTO THE 30S F.
THE SFC RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. A SFC CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BENEATH AN 80+ KT
JET STREAK IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING H500 TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF
THE TWO SFC FEATURES WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASED WIND GUSTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS.
FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE SFC LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
AS WELL, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES
ACROSS ARKANSAS. TO THE WEST, ALONG THE SFC LOW'S TRAILING COLD
FRONT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A LIMITED THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A 50+ KT LLJ IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, STRONG SRLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS
WELL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W/NW.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
MID TO LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE VERY ACTIVE ACROSS
THE REGION CHARACTERIZED BY MULTIPLE TYPES OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
TO BEGIN, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE MOVING INTO NRN PLAINS
FROM THE ROCKIES MEANWHILE NEAR THE SURFACE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED BENEATH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE.
EXTENDING TO THE S AND SW OF THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BE A PRONOUNCED
COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND S OF THE WARM FRONT, WHICH
STRETCHES INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY REGIONS, A LARGE OPEN WARM SECTOR
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF AR BOUND BY DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
EVEN TORNADOES. SAMPLE POINT SOUNDING ACROSS THE STATE DEPICT
FORECAST SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-3000 J/KG, CIN INITIALLY IN THE
50 TO 100 J/KG RANGE DWINDLING TO LESS THAN 25 J/KG BY LATE
AFTERNOON INDICATING THE CAP MAY GIVE WAY AT SOME POINT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WHEN THE CAP BREAKS, STORMS WOULD BE DEVELOPING INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1KM AND 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES IN THE
150-300 M2/S2 TO 250-400 M2/S2 RANGE, RESPECTIVELY. CLOCKWISE
CURVING HODOGRAPHS WITH HEIGHT BECOME LARGER LOOPING HODOGRAPHS BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE CHANGES ARE LIKELY TO COME, THE BEST
ESTIMATED TIMING FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON,
EVENING, INTO EARLY PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
BEYOND THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON WEDNESDAY, WE QUICKLY SHIFT TOPICS
TO THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING, FLOODING, AND RIVER
FLOODING FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
AR.
THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE EWRD WITH TIME. AT THE
SAME TIME, AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE E COAST
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE CONVERGENCE OF THIS TROUGH TO THE W AND
RIDGE TO THE E WILL AMPLIFY SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND THE
PATTERN WILL BECOME FIXED THROUGH SATURDAY.
IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WINDS WILL BE OUT THE S
PUMPING PLENTY OF MOISTURE-RICH AIR INTO THE REGION VIA THE MAYA
EXPRESS. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
RECORD MAXIMUM TERRITORY WHICH WILL ONLY AID IN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
RATES OVER THE COMING DAYS.
THE MAIN ISSUE WE WILL BE DEALING WITH IS THE DURATION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED; ON THE ORDER OF 72 HOURS FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 3-6" OF TOTAL RAINFALL
ACROSS NW AR AND SE AR, AND WIDESPREAD 6-10" OF TOTAL RAINFALL
ACROSS SW INTO CNTRL INTO E AND NE AR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE EXPECTED RAIN THAT OCCURS
ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN RECENT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED WITH WEDNESDAYS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS DAY WILL SERVE TO INCREASE THE SOIL MOISTURE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-12+"
COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM SW TO NE WITHIN THE
LARGER 6-10" FOOTPRINT. WPC HAS DAY 3 AT A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WITH A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE RISK FOR FAR E AR. BY DAYS 4
AND 5, THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK ONLY GETS WORSE WITH MUCH
LARGER AREAS OF MODERATE RISK OF FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS LARGER
SEGMENTS OF AR.
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED INFORMATION ABOVE, A RARE DAY 3 THROUGH DAY
6 FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PART OF AR. THIS IS TO
GIVE MAXIMUM LEAD TIME AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAINS! AS OF
NOW, NO RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN FLOOD ACROSS THE
LITTLE ROCK CWA BUT THIS STAT WILL CERTAINTY CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND.
THE TIME IS NOW TO PREPARE FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF FLOODING HAZARDS
WHETHER THAT BE MOVE FARM EQUIPMENT TO HIGHER GROUND, MOVE LIVESTOCK
TO HIGHER GROUND, OR MOVE PERSONAL PROPERTY TO HIGHER GROUND, ETC.
IN ADDITION TO THIS, PLAN OUT ROUTES TO REACH YOUR DESTINATIONS
SHOULD A MAIN THOROUGHFARE BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO HIGH WATER.
CONFIDENCE IN A HIGH-IMPACT, FAR-REACHING FLOOD EVENT IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND STATIONARY FEATURES IN PLACE
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ANNUAL RETURN INTERNAL (ARI) FOR
THIS UPCOMING RAINFALL EVENT HAS A LARGE SWATH EXTENDING FROM W-
CNTRL, TO CNTRL, TO E AND NE AR OF 10 TO 25 YEARS WITH SOME
LOCATIONS REACHING THAT 25 TO 50 YEAR RECURRENCE INTERVAL. ARI IN
OTHER WORDS REPRESENTS HOW MANY YEARS ON AVERAGE AN EVENT IS
REACHED. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THIS WILL RESULT IN ALOT OF RAIN.
STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICES FOR THE LATEST UPDATES
AND DON'T BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUES AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE N/NE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AT LESS THAN 5 KTS, BECOMING S/SE ON TUE
GUSTING TO 10-20 KTS BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 42 72 65 78 / 0 0 30 90
CAMDEN AR 46 79 67 85 / 0 0 20 80
HARRISON AR 42 70 63 76 / 0 0 40 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 45 77 66 79 / 0 0 30 100
LITTLE ROCK AR 46 75 68 82 / 0 0 30 90
MONTICELLO AR 47 78 69 86 / 0 0 20 70
MOUNT IDA AR 46 78 66 78 / 0 0 40 100
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 41 70 63 76 / 0 0 40 90
NEWPORT AR 42 72 63 81 / 0 0 30 90
PINE BLUFF AR 45 77 68 86 / 0 0 20 80
RUSSELLVILLE AR 45 77 66 78 / 0 0 50 100
SEARCY AR 42 74 63 81 / 0 0 30 90
STUTTGART AR 45 74 68 84 / 0 0 20 90
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>064-
066-067-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-
221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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