975
FXUS64 KLZK 010844
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
344 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LARGE SCALE SFC RIDGE WAS SITUATED JUST TO
THE EAST OF AR EARLY THIS MRNG, ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST
WIND OVER THE FA. OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LVL CLOUDS, SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH PREDAWN TEMPS RANGING FM THE LOWER 40S TO THE MID 50S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE WL CONT TO SHIFT FURTHER TO THE EAST
TODAY, WITH A NEW SFC LOW DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES. THIS
WL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ACRS AR AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, ESP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF AR. MEANWHILE, THE MID LVL
FLOW PATTERN WL TRANSITION FM ZONAL TO THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THE PRIMARY SFC LOW WL TRACK FM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TOWARDS
THE GREAT LAKES TNGT AND EARLY WED. THIS WL ALLOW AN ASSOCD WARM FNT
TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACRS THE FA, ALLOWING A WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIRMASS TO RETURN TO THE NATURAL STATE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS (20-30%) TO DVLP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FNT
TNGT INTO WED MRNG. ADDITIONAL ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR WEST EARLY
WED WL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AR BEFORE WEAKENING
LATER IN THE MRNG AS LLJ DECREASES.
HEADING INTO WED AFTN, A TRAILING CDFNT FM THE PRIMARY SFC LOW WL BE
WORKING INTO NORTHWEST AR. IN ADVANCE OF THE FNTL BNDRY, WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIR WL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FA. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED
TO BE WELL INTO THE 60S, WITH READINGS APCHG 70 DEGREES OVER EASTERN
AR. MEANWHILE, AIR TEMPERATURES WL WARM WELL INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S
AHEAD OF THE FNT, ALLOWING FOR CONDS TO DESTABILIZE.
FCST SOUNDINGS CONT TO SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 2-3K J/KG LATER WED
AFTN, PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-30/I-57/HIGHWAY 67/167
CORRIDOR, WITH ASSOCD 0-3KM SRH VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 300-400
M2/S2 RANGE. WE EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION FIRE BY MID TO LATE AFTN ON
WED, AND CONT INTO THE EVENING HRS. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH A FEW LONG TRACK TORNADOES IF INDIVIDUAL
SUPERCELLS INITIALLY FORM. THE ACTIVITY SHLD TRANSITION TO A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS HEADING INTO WED EVENING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE DROPPED SOUTH INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
STATE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTION MOVING OVER CENTRAL TO SRN AR ON THU. THIS WILL GENERALLY
BE WHERE THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH FLOW ALOFT
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT THU INTO THU NIGHT. WEAK UPPER
WAVES WILL PASS OVER THIS FRONT...WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG AN AXIS GENERALLY FROM SWRN AR INTO NERN AR BISECTING
THE STATE.
BY FRI...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SSWRLY...ALLOWING FOR THE FRONT
TO LIFT BACK NW SOME. THIS WILL SHIFT THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
BACK TO THE NW...AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL THEN
START TO MOVE BACK TO THE SE SAT INTO SUN AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NE OVER THE REGION. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL MOVE
BACK TO THE EAST AS A RESULT BY LATE SAT. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE BY LATE SUN...LEAVING THE END OF THE
FORECAST ON A DRY NOTE.
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUN...WITH
SOME AREAS SEEING IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES. CURRENTLY THIS AXIS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE FROM WRN/SWRN AR INTO SRN/SERN MO...WITH
MUCH LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE. HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL REMAIN ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL COULD FALL...WITH A SHIFT IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS STILL
POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS WEEK. EVEN SO...MANY AREAS LOOK TO SEE AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
WILL ALSO MENTION THERE WILL REMAIN SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SVR
CONVECTION ON THU...MAINLY ALONG AND SE OF THE STALLING FRONT. ALL
SVR WX THREATS WILL EXIST IN THE SRN/SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
THU/THU EVENING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD AS THE SFC RIDGE
CONTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MRNG, WL
VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND BCM GUSTY AT TIMES AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. A WARM FNT IS PROGGED TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ACRS THE
FA LATE TODAY AND TNGT, WITH LOW END VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS
RETURNING. PROB30 GROUPS INCLUDED FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
AFT 02/00Z, FOR SCT CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BNDRY. WL
ALSO SEE LLWS OVER THE WESTERN SITES AS LOW LVL JET RAMPS UP TNGT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 71 64 79 60 / 0 30 100 90
CAMDEN AR 79 67 85 66 / 0 20 80 90
HARRISON AR 70 62 77 53 / 0 30 90 50
HOT SPRINGS AR 76 66 78 63 / 0 30 100 90
LITTLE ROCK AR 75 67 82 65 / 0 30 90 90
MONTICELLO AR 79 70 85 70 / 0 10 70 70
MOUNT IDA AR 77 66 77 62 / 0 30 100 90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 69 62 77 55 / 0 30 100 50
NEWPORT AR 71 63 82 63 / 0 30 90 90
PINE BLUFF AR 77 68 85 67 / 0 10 90 90
RUSSELLVILLE AR 76 66 78 60 / 0 30 100 80
SEARCY AR 73 63 82 62 / 0 30 90 90
STUTTGART AR 74 68 84 67 / 0 20 90 90
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...44
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