011
FXUS64 KLZK 022329
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
629 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
- SEVERAL HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENTS, PERHAPS HISTORIC, WILL
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
18Z KLZK UPPER AIR OBSERVATION INDICATES A 'LOADED GUN' TYPE
SOUNDING. MUCAPE OF > 4000KG IS INDICATED, WITH A 0-3KM (SUPERCELL
DISCRIMINATOR) OF > 275 M2/S2.
AFTER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ERODES THIS AFTERNOON, ALL PARAMETERS
DERIVED FROM THIS SOUNDING SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT, WITH
SUPPORT FOR LONG TRACK, SIGNIFICANT OR GREATER TORNADOES. SEVERAL
BRIEF SUPERCELLS ALREADY HAVE BEEN NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR
TERM FORECASTS WILL OCCUPIED ON THIS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT, WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL FOCUS THIS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY, AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WOBBLE DUE
TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW(S), BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY, AS SEVERAL WAVES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE BOUNDARY. THE RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE NOT ONLY A FLASH FLOODING THREAT, BUT A RIVER FLOODING
THREAT AS WELL.
RAINFALL WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY.
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
FORECASTS WILL REFLECT BEST EXPECTED SCENARIO REGARDING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 58 68 56 81 / 80 90 90 100
CAMDEN AR 65 80 67 85 / 90 90 80 80
HARRISON AR 51 62 52 72 / 20 80 60 100
HOT SPRINGS AR 59 70 61 80 / 90 100 90 100
LITTLE ROCK AR 61 74 62 84 / 90 100 90 90
MONTICELLO AR 69 83 71 86 / 80 80 60 70
MOUNT IDA AR 58 70 60 79 / 80 100 90 100
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 52 64 53 74 / 30 90 70 100
NEWPORT AR 60 68 59 81 / 90 100 90 90
PINE BLUFF AR 64 78 66 85 / 90 90 80 80
RUSSELLVILLE AR 57 70 58 80 / 70 90 80 100
SEARCY AR 59 73 58 84 / 90 90 90 90
STUTTGART AR 64 75 66 84 / 100 90 90 80
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-
137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-
341.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR ARZ008-016-017-025-
033-034-045>047-056-057-064-065-069.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
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