277
FXUS64 KLZK 192344
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
644 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON FROM
ROUGHLY FORT SMITH TO CLINTON TO CORNING. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND
NORTH OF THIS LINE REMAIN IN THE 60S F WHILE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THIS LINE WERE IN THE 70S/80S F. EARLIER IN THE DAY, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS W/NW PORTIONS OF THE STATE
WITH PRECIP RAPIDLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD THE SE. PORTIONS OF
BOONE/NEWTON COUNTIES PICKED UP OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL FOCUS ACTIVITY LARGELY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE STATE. STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS WHILE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OR MOVE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL POSE PRIMARILY A HAIL THREAT.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE RISK, A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF PW VALUES
IN THE 1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE IN THE DEEP SW FLOW WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WHILE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LARGELY ISOLATED CELLS AT FIRST THIS EVENING,
ACTIVITY WILL MERGE INTO SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THESE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE VERY EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND WILL INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT, LIKELY DROPPING
AT LEAST ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, A BREAK IN ACTIVITY MAY BE NOTED FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. WHILE THIS WILL BE WELL RECEIVED, IT WON'T LAST LONG.
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, A COMPACT H500 CYCLONE WILL MOVE QUICKLY
FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES TOWARD NORTHERN MO. A SFC CYCLONE WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR ROUTE, JUST EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE. THE
SFC CYCLONE WILL HELP USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE WHILE
TODAY'S STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LIFT WELL NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY FROM MID-DAY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST H500 WINDS
LIFTING NORTH INTO MISSOURI AND HIGHEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY
ACROSS ARKANSAS. BY LATER IN THE EVENING, THE LOW WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS YOU GO EAST
ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, HOWEVER, A LOCALLY INCREASED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT
MAY OCCUR FROM WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHEN
INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHEST AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THESE AREAS.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST OF THE STATE AND PRECIP WILL
COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING TO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SFC RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE REST OF MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PD, AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACRS SOUTHEAST AR, IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED
OUT FRONT. KEPT LOW CHANCE (20-40%) POPS IN THE FCST THRU TUE FOR
THOSE AREAS.
A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WX CONDS RETURNS AREAWIDE BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AND LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE MID-SOUTH AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
PATTERN SETS UP. THE FEATURES WL INTERACT WITH WITH THE NORTHWARD
RETURNING SFC FRONT, TO PRODUCE PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVR THE FA.
THERE RMNS QUITE A BIT OF FCST UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY REGARDING
TIMING OF EACH SWT, WHICH WL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WX. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF MULTI-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS A BIT,
SHOWING GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 3
INCHES COMMON ALONG THE I-30 CORRIDOR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
VFR CONDS WL START OFF THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE CHCS WL INCRS OVER
NORTHWEST AR LATER THIS EVENING AND CONT THRU SUN MRNG, WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDS RETURNING. ELSEWHERE, LOWS CLOUDS WL INCRS TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ON SUN, WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDS EXPECTED. MOST LOCATIONS
WL SEE A LULL IN SHOWERS/STORMS MUCH OF SUN. A LINE OF STRONG TO
SVR STORMS IS FCST TO ENTER WESTERN AR EARLY SUN AFTN, EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOUTH
WINDS WL INCRS LATE TNGT AND SUN, WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ARZ004>006-014-015-103-
112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-
238-240-241-313-340-341.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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