522
FXUS64 KLZK 200448 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1148 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON FROM
ROUGHLY FORT SMITH TO CLINTON TO CORNING. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND
NORTH OF THIS LINE REMAIN IN THE 60S F WHILE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THIS LINE WERE IN THE 70S/80S F. EARLIER IN THE DAY, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS W/NW PORTIONS OF THE STATE
WITH PRECIP RAPIDLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD THE SE. PORTIONS OF
BOONE/NEWTON COUNTIES PICKED UP OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL FOCUS ACTIVITY LARGELY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE STATE. STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS WHILE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OR MOVE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL POSE PRIMARILY A HAIL THREAT.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE RISK, A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF PW VALUES
IN THE 1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE IN THE DEEP SW FLOW WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WHILE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LARGELY ISOLATED CELLS AT FIRST THIS EVENING,
ACTIVITY WILL MERGE INTO SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THESE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE VERY EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND WILL INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT, LIKELY DROPPING
AT LEAST ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, A BREAK IN ACTIVITY MAY BE NOTED FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. WHILE THIS WILL BE WELL RECEIVED, IT WON'T LAST LONG.
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, A COMPACT H500 CYCLONE WILL MOVE QUICKLY
FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES TOWARD NORTHERN MO. A SFC CYCLONE WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR ROUTE, JUST EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE. THE
SFC CYCLONE WILL HELP USHER A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE WHILE
TODAY'S STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL LIFT WELL NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY FROM MID-DAY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST H500 WINDS
LIFTING NORTH INTO MISSOURI AND HIGHEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY
ACROSS ARKANSAS. BY LATER IN THE EVENING, THE LOW WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO A DECREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS YOU GO EAST
ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, HOWEVER, A LOCALLY INCREASED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT
MAY OCCUR FROM WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHEN
INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHEST AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THESE AREAS.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST OF THE STATE AND PRECIP WILL
COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY EVENING TO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SFC RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE REST OF MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PD, AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACRS SOUTHEAST AR, IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED
OUT FRONT. KEPT LOW CHANCE (20-40%) POPS IN THE FCST THRU TUE FOR
THOSE AREAS.
A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WX CONDS RETURNS AREAWIDE BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AND LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE MID-SOUTH AS A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
PATTERN SETS UP. THE FEATURES WL INTERACT WITH WITH THE NORTHWARD
RETURNING SFC FRONT, TO PRODUCE PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVR THE FA.
THERE RMNS QUITE A BIT OF FCST UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY REGARDING
TIMING OF EACH SWT, WHICH WL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WX. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF MULTI-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS A BIT,
SHOWING GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 3
INCHES COMMON ALONG THE I-30 CORRIDOR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
CONVECTION WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NRN TERMINALS
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH AND SW...SOME SCATTERED
SHRA MAY BE SEEN...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FURTHER SE. SOME
MVFR CIGS MAY BE SEEN AROUND SUNRISE. BY LATE MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN...BUT A NEW
FRONT WILL SURGE EAST SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 64 79 54 76 / 30 40 90 0
CAMDEN AR 68 83 61 80 / 10 50 90 20
HARRISON AR 59 72 48 73 / 70 90 20 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 66 78 53 78 / 20 80 50 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 66 81 56 78 / 10 50 80 0
MONTICELLO AR 67 82 64 77 / 10 20 90 40
MOUNT IDA AR 65 76 52 78 / 50 80 30 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 60 75 51 73 / 60 90 50 0
NEWPORT AR 66 81 56 76 / 30 20 90 0
PINE BLUFF AR 67 82 61 79 / 10 20 90 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 64 77 51 78 / 50 80 30 0
SEARCY AR 65 80 54 77 / 30 40 90 0
STUTTGART AR 66 82 59 77 / 10 20 80 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ARZ004>006-014-015-103-
112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-
238-240-241-313-340-341.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...62
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