248
FXUS64 KLZK 202356
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
656 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
FORECAST FOR IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON EVENTS THROUGH
03Z/21.
CONVECTION, CURRENTLY FORMING IN LINE SEGMENTS, IS NOW
IN WESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORMING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA, WHICH IS ACCELERATING EASTWARD.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHOW SOME OVERALL STRENGTHENING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. RECENT CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR INSOLATION AND
ASSOCIATED CONTRIBUTION TO LOCAL INSTABILITY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL, MUCH WEAKER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY, MAINLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MID SOUTH DURING
THIS PERIOD. SEVERAL WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVES IN THIS FLOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD, AND WILL PROMOTE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LATER FORECASTS WILL BETTER REFINE ANY
FLOODING POTENTIAL.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z.
55
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 55 77 52 82 / 90 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 55 80 56 83 / 70 0 20 30
HARRISON AR 48 74 51 79 / 10 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 51 79 53 82 / 40 0 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 56 79 56 82 / 80 0 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 63 82 61 83 / 90 30 30 50
MOUNT IDA AR 49 80 52 83 / 10 0 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 50 74 50 80 / 30 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 55 76 53 80 / 90 0 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 58 79 57 83 / 80 0 20 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 50 79 52 82 / 20 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 54 78 53 81 / 90 0 0 10
STUTTGART AR 59 78 57 82 / 90 0 10 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
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