679
FXUS64 KLZK 210539
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1239 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
FORECAST FOR IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON EVENTS THROUGH
03Z/21.
CONVECTION, CURRENTLY FORMING IN LINE SEGMENTS, IS NOW
IN WESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORMING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA, WHICH IS ACCELERATING EASTWARD.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHOW SOME OVERALL STRENGTHENING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. RECENT CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR INSOLATION AND
ASSOCIATED CONTRIBUTION TO LOCAL INSTABILITY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL, MUCH WEAKER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY, MAINLY EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MID SOUTH DURING
THIS PERIOD. SEVERAL WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVES IN THIS FLOW WILL
MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD, AND WILL PROMOTE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LATER FORECASTS WILL BETTER REFINE ANY
FLOODING POTENTIAL.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXIT THE STATE WITH VCTS
CONTINUING FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AT KPBF AND KLLQ. IN ITS WAKE,
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW WITH MVFR CIGS FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH MID
MORNING AND CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES. IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, ALBEIT BRIEFLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 77 52 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 80 56 83 62 / 0 20 30 10
HARRISON AR 74 51 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 79 53 82 59 / 0 0 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 79 56 82 62 / 0 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 82 61 83 65 / 30 30 50 10
MOUNT IDA AR 80 52 83 59 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 74 50 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 76 53 80 59 / 0 0 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 79 57 83 62 / 0 20 30 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 79 52 82 59 / 0 0 0 10
SEARCY AR 78 53 81 59 / 0 0 10 10
STUTTGART AR 78 57 82 64 / 0 10 20 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...56
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