955
FXUS64 KLZK 210738
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
238 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL NETWORKS PLACE THE THE BOUNDARY THAT WAS LARGELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. PARENT LOW IS WELL TO THE
NORTH OF US (NE WISCONSIN) WITH GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE
CYCLONE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN SPITE OF BROAD SW UPPER FLOW.
BOUNDARY DOES APPEAR TO STALL BRIEFLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOME LOW END POPS ARE WARRANTIED BUT ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE THE MUCH DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S/50S TODAY
VERSUS THE 60S THAT WERE EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION RATHER QUICKLY
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURNING AND AN INCREASE IN
BOTH MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE TRIES TO MOVE
THE SAME BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
AND LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL NEED TO BE INTRODUCED BUT ONCE AGAIN,
AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR EXCESSIVE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
THE THEME OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN OVERALL WITH
NUMEROUS OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CWA AND STATE OF ARKANSAS.
IN THE UPPER LVLS, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE PULSES PASSING THROUGH THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN OVER
ARKANSAS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE PROVIDES AN UPPER LVL PATTERN THAT
DOESN'T PORTRAY A SIGNAL REPRESENTATIVE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER, BUT THIS UPPER LVL PATTERN WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED IN TANDEM WITH FEATURES FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
AT THE SFC, FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SEVERAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP ELEVATED POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
THE CWA. DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS MOVING IN THE GENERAL
DIRECTION OF ARKANSAS WITH A REGION OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN REGION OF THE CONUS WHICH WILL ADVECT (VIA CLOCKWISE
FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER) MOISTURE INTO THE MID-
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. INTO THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF INCREASED
POP CHANCES STATEWIDE. INTO THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
POP CHANCES OVER THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE LOWEST AND
LEAST WIDESPREAD TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES OVER THIS PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 5 TO NEAR 10 DEGREES
ABOVE TYPICAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE APRIL AS THE COMBINATION OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND OVERALL SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN BOTH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES.
IT MAY BE WAY TOO EARLY TO ANALYZE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM
THIS PERIOD, BUT AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL
APPEARS LIKELY TO FALL OVER THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A FEW AREAS WHICH COULD NEAR 3 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL. THE
POSITIVE IN THIS SITUATION WILL BE THE 5 DAY PERIOD THAT THIS TOTAL
RAINFALL WILL FALL OVER INSTEAD OF A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
LINE OF BROKEN CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXIT THE STATE WITH VCTS
CONTINUING FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AT KPBF AND KLLQ. IN ITS WAKE,
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW WITH MVFR CIGS FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH MID
MORNING AND CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES. IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, ALBEIT BRIEFLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 77 53 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 80 55 84 61 / 0 0 20 10
HARRISON AR 73 50 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 80 53 83 58 / 0 0 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 78 55 82 61 / 0 0 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 80 60 84 64 / 20 10 30 10
MOUNT IDA AR 80 52 84 58 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 73 50 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 75 54 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 79 56 83 61 / 0 0 20 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 78 53 82 58 / 0 0 0 10
SEARCY AR 77 53 81 57 / 0 0 10 10
STUTTGART AR 77 57 81 61 / 0 0 10 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...56
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