540
FXUS64 KLZK 220505
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1205 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE WHILE SFC RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER ARKANSAS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
TO SPREAD SW TO NE ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS SFC RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
AND SRLY FLOW HELPS MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE. IN THE
H500 SW FLOW, A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST, CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL
PROVIDE SOME WEAK DRY AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE, EFFECTIVELY STALLING A HUMID/WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MORE OR LESS
MARKS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF EXPECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS WE MOVE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HELPED KICK
OFF WEDNESDAY'S PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TAKING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH IT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL WASH THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT CAUSING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH OVER
THE ENTIRE STATE OF ARKANSAS.
WITH UNOBSTRUCTED LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF ACROSS
ARKANSAS IN PLACE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY, MOISTURE WILL BE
READILY AVAILABLE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP WITH THE AID OF ANY UPPER LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT. IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME DURING THIS
PERIOD, A BROAD, LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WHILE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
SET UP OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL LEAVE ARKANSAS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A CONNECTION TO THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM, AIDING IN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THE UNION OF UPPER AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE TO EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES
BEGINNING ON THURSDAY AND HOLDING ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THESE LARGE SCALE FACTORS IN PLACE, THIS TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
WETTER THAN AVERAGE WITH WARM, BUT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE.
RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY WILL LARGELY BE GUIDED BY WEAK FORCING
MECHANISMS IN THE FORM OF EITHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, OR REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES
(MCVS) FROM WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST MCVS ARE ESSENTIALLY UNRESOLVABLE, SO THE
CURRENT FORECAST PLACES THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES EACH DAY IN
LINE WITH MODEL REPRESENTATION PASSAGES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT.
AT THIS TIME, THE ENSEMBLE AVERAGE OF LONG RANGE MODELS ADVERTISE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND
SATURDAY SO WE HAVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
DURING AND AFTER THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY EACH DAY, OR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. THIS BEING SAID, IT
DOESN'T MEAN THAT EACH DAY IS GOING TO BE A WASH OUT FOR EVERY
LOCATION ACROSS ARKANSAS, HOWEVER THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE CHARACTERIZED WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AT THIS TIME THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS LOW, BUT AS
ALLUDED TO ABOVE, THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE
FOR EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PROCESSES FAVORING A THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING ABOVE OTHER THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS. THIS DOESN'T
HAVE THE LOOK OF A WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT LIKE WE SAW IN EARLY
APRIL, BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING/FLASH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THIS TIME PERIOD SMALLER SCALE (MESOSCALE) DETAILS
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY REVEAL AREAS OF MORE FOCUSED CONCERN FOR IMPACTS,
FLOODING OR OTHERWISE. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE AGGREGATE
OF RAINFALL FROM EACH DAY WILL LEAVE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WITH THE MOST RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS FROM
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THEY BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED LATE TUESDAY
MORNING OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 80 54 83 61 / 0 0 10 20
CAMDEN AR 83 60 82 63 / 10 10 50 40
HARRISON AR 78 53 79 58 / 0 0 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 83 58 83 61 / 0 0 40 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 81 59 83 64 / 0 0 20 40
MONTICELLO AR 83 63 84 65 / 20 10 50 30
MOUNT IDA AR 83 57 82 62 / 0 0 40 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 79 52 81 58 / 0 0 10 20
NEWPORT AR 79 56 82 62 / 0 0 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 82 60 84 63 / 0 0 30 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 82 56 83 62 / 0 0 20 30
SEARCY AR 80 56 83 61 / 0 0 10 30
STUTTGART AR 81 61 83 64 / 0 0 20 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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