986
FXUS64 KLZK 231023 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
523 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN/SERN AR
EARLY THIS WED MORNING...ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTH OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AR. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS PASSING OVERHEAD...WHICH IS ALSO HELPING KEEP THIS ISOLATED
CONVECTION CONTINUING. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE 50S NORTH OF THIS
FRONT...TO THE 60S ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS FRONT. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
LIFT NORTH TODAY...WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NRN TX EARLY THIS
MORNING LOOKS TO EVENTUALLY MOVE TOWARDS AR BY LATE THIS WED MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HRS. THIS ONGOING MORNING CONVECTION IS
BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS...WHICH LENDS SOME
CONFIDENCE ON THE AFTERNOON POSSIBILITIES. WILL TEND TO LEAN THIS
DIRECTION INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HRS...BUT BLEND WITH SOME
NEAR-TERM NBM GIVEN INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OVER TIME. THIS RESULTS
IN BEST POPS OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA...DECREASING TO THE NE.
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH LATER IN
THE EVENING BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING RESULTS IN A BIT MORE
LIMITED COVERAGE/MORE UNCERTAINTY.
BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THU...FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE SWRLY
DIRECTION...WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES PASSING OVER AR. THIS WILL
KEEP POPS UP FOR MANY AREAS INTO THU NIGHT...BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS OVER...AND WITH INTERACTION OF RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP...EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION
WILL BE UNCERTAIN. EVEN SO...THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THU NIGHT...AND EVEN INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
GIVEN THE RELATIVE WEAK FLOW ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR CONVECTION LOOKS LIMITED. EVEN SO...SOME
STRONG TO SVR TSRA WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING ANY SVR WX WILL BE WITH ANY ORGANIZED
MESOSCALE SYSTEMS THAT COULD DEVELOP...BUT AS STATED
EARLIER...WHERE/WHEN THESE MAY OCCUR IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT
THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL DESCRIBE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. I
GUESS WE WILL SEE IF APRIL SHOWERS BRING MAY FLOWERS. SUSTAINED W TO
SW UPPER FLOW WILL PROLONG AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY WITH
SUCCESSIVE WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE
GOOD NEWS DURING THE PERIOD IS AN APPARENT LACK OF PROLIFIC PASSING
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OR SUBSTANTIAL SHARP SOURCES OF FORCED ASCENT.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION TO PULSE, SINGLE CELL, OR MULTICELL
STORM MODES. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ANY GIVEN DAY APPEARS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
ON FRIDAY, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING GOOD COVERAGE
OF POPS TO ALL OF AR. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE MAINTAINED A POP DISCREPANCY HEADING INTO
EARLY/MID SATURDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN FEATURES RIDGING ALOFT WHICH
SHOULD PROMOTE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE YET MODEL GUIDANCE HAS POPS
DEVELOPING INVOF A STALLED FRONT NEAR ACROSS SRN MO. BY SATURDAY
EVENING, AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE RIDGE
ENHANCING POPS ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE STATE.
THE DRIEST WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BECOMES MOST DOMINATE
DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME. BEYOND MONDAY, THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. LOCALLY, A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY. GIVEN HOW MUCH TIME IS BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY, WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF SEVERE WEATHER.
WHILE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MOST DAYS, THIS IS NOT A WASHOUT ALL-DAY
RAIN EVENT THAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE MONTH. THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE BREAKS IN PRECIPITATION IN WAVES AS UPPER FEATURES PASS
OVERHEAD. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST OVER NW AR
WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1-1.5" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING
TO AROUND 0.25-0.50" OVER S/SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. LOWS SHOULD
BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND UPPER 60S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
70S AND UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS WED MORNING...WITH
SOME VERY SPOTTY SHRA NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN AR. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY...WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
BECOMING POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS. HAVE
MENTIONED VCSH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT MAY HAVE TO ADD MORE
AGGRESSIVE MENTION OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE TAF LATER AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON WHERE THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 83 60 78 63 / 10 20 50 50
CAMDEN AR 82 62 79 63 / 50 30 60 60
HARRISON AR 79 57 75 61 / 10 20 60 60
HOT SPRINGS AR 83 61 78 63 / 40 30 70 60
LITTLE ROCK AR 83 62 78 64 / 20 30 70 60
MONTICELLO AR 83 63 80 65 / 40 40 60 50
MOUNT IDA AR 83 61 78 63 / 40 30 70 60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 81 58 77 61 / 10 10 60 50
NEWPORT AR 83 63 79 64 / 10 10 50 50
PINE BLUFF AR 84 63 79 64 / 30 40 60 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 84 61 78 63 / 20 20 70 60
SEARCY AR 83 60 78 62 / 20 20 60 60
STUTTGART AR 82 64 78 65 / 20 30 60 60
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...62
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