434
FXUS64 KLZK 232328 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
628 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
A WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED ACRS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AR THIS
AFTN. SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY, SFC DEWPOINTS HAS CLIMBED INTO THE 60S.
AT MID AFTN, TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WERE NOTED
OVER THE STATE. THE FIRST WAS OVER EASTERN AR, ASSOCD WITH A SLOW
UPPER IMPULSE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OTHER WAS OVER SOUTHWEST
AR, WHERE AN MCV FM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACRS NORTHEAST TX CONTD TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD.
THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST AR IS SHOWN BY THE CAMS TO
LIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH, EVENTUALLY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AR
LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING. AT THIS TIME, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHLD START TO DCRS BY SUNSET
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
UNSETTLED CONDS WL PERSIST THRU THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. A QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WL BRINGS SEVERAL MORE SWT'S ACRS AR THRU
FRI, KEEPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHCS IN THE FCST. WITH THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN, LINGERING SMALL-SCALE BNDRYS, ALONG WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION OF EACH IMPULSE, WILL DETERMINE WHERE CONVECTION WL BE
FOCUSED. SEVERE WX POTENTIAL WL CONT TO BE LIMITED, BUT SLOW MOVING
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
SFC RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE STATE NEAR THE START
OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA. AT THE H500 LEVEL,
A RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY WHILE A SLOW MOVING CYCLONE WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ONSHORE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THERE WILL BRIEFLY BE A LULL IN RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE STATE FROM SUN-MON AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
INTENSIFIES BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND/MID-
ATLANTIC REGIONS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN OF SRLY FLOW AND THE
FRONT THAT MADE IT SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. A COUPLE DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS COULD APPROACH 90 F IN SOME SPOTS.
PRECIP CHANCES AS WELL AS SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS H500 RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION, MID-LEVEL SW FLOW WILL RETURN AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
LONGWAVE TROUGH MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. AT
THE SFC, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE STATE BY TUESDAY
EVENING WHILE A STRONG H500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE BETTER FORCING MAY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE, A
SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THIS
EVENING WITH THE OVERALL TREND TO BE DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF
PRECIP AFTER SUNSET. LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY CAUSED BY ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AGAIN
LEADING TO LOCALIZED IMPACTS TO AREA TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 61 82 63 83 / 10 60 40 70
CAMDEN AR 61 80 63 84 / 30 60 30 50
HARRISON AR 57 77 61 76 / 10 70 50 70
HOT SPRINGS AR 61 79 63 82 / 40 70 40 60
LITTLE ROCK AR 63 79 65 83 / 40 70 40 60
MONTICELLO AR 64 80 66 84 / 40 60 30 60
MOUNT IDA AR 60 79 63 83 / 30 60 40 60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 58 80 62 77 / 10 60 50 70
NEWPORT AR 63 80 65 81 / 10 50 40 70
PINE BLUFF AR 63 79 64 84 / 40 60 40 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 60 81 63 81 / 30 60 40 60
SEARCY AR 60 80 62 82 / 30 60 40 60
STUTTGART AR 65 79 66 83 / 40 60 40 60
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...67
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