160
FXUS64 KLZK 240527 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1227 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
A WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED ACRS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AR THIS
AFTN. SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY, SFC DEWPOINTS HAS CLIMBED INTO THE 60S.
AT MID AFTN, TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WERE NOTED
OVER THE STATE. THE FIRST WAS OVER EASTERN AR, ASSOCD WITH A SLOW
UPPER IMPULSE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OTHER WAS OVER SOUTHWEST
AR, WHERE AN MCV FM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACRS NORTHEAST TX CONTD TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD.
THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST AR IS SHOWN BY THE CAMS TO
LIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH, EVENTUALLY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AR
LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING. AT THIS TIME, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHLD START TO DCRS BY SUNSET
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
UNSETTLED CONDS WL PERSIST THRU THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. A QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WL BRINGS SEVERAL MORE SWT'S ACRS AR THRU
FRI, KEEPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHCS IN THE FCST. WITH THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN, LINGERING SMALL-SCALE BNDRYS, ALONG WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION OF EACH IMPULSE, WILL DETERMINE WHERE CONVECTION WL BE
FOCUSED. SEVERE WX POTENTIAL WL CONT TO BE LIMITED, BUT SLOW MOVING
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
SFC RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE STATE NEAR THE START
OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA. AT THE H500 LEVEL,
A RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY WHILE A SLOW MOVING CYCLONE WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ONSHORE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THERE WILL BRIEFLY BE A LULL IN RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE STATE FROM SUN-MON AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
INTENSIFIES BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND/MID-
ATLANTIC REGIONS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN OF SRLY FLOW AND THE
FRONT THAT MADE IT SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. A COUPLE DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS COULD APPROACH 90 F IN SOME SPOTS.
PRECIP CHANCES AS WELL AS SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS H500 RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION, MID-LEVEL SW FLOW WILL RETURN AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
LONGWAVE TROUGH MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. AT
THE SFC, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE STATE BY TUESDAY
EVENING WHILE A STRONG H500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WHILE BETTER FORCING MAY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE, A
SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
SCATTERED SHRA AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
THU AFTERNOON. HAVE PROB30 MENTIONED FOR THE BETTER POTENTIAL.
CHANCES WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET THU.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 65 82 61 76 / 30 60 30 30
CAMDEN AR 64 84 64 83 / 30 60 20 40
HARRISON AR 62 77 58 72 / 40 60 30 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 83 63 79 / 30 50 20 60
LITTLE ROCK AR 65 82 64 78 / 30 60 30 40
MONTICELLO AR 67 83 66 84 / 40 70 20 40
MOUNT IDA AR 63 83 63 80 / 40 50 30 50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 62 77 58 73 / 40 60 20 20
NEWPORT AR 66 82 63 75 / 30 60 30 20
PINE BLUFF AR 65 82 65 81 / 40 60 20 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 64 82 64 78 / 30 50 30 40
SEARCY AR 64 82 63 78 / 30 60 30 30
STUTTGART AR 66 82 66 80 / 30 60 30 40
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...62
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page