973
FXUS64 KLZK 241734
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1234 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
WEAK UPPER WAVES PASS OVER THE NATURAL STATE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE
FIRST SUCH WAVE IS MOVING EAST OVER THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS FAR SERN AR
AND INTO MS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION INCREASING SOME FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...THINK MAINLY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
COVERAGE WILL THEN DECREASE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS THIS UPPER WAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
A NEW FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE LATE FRI
INTO FRI NIGHT...AROUND THE SAME TIME A NEW UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO
THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING POPS AGAIN FOR MUCH OF FRI
INTO FRI EVENING...BUT POPS WILL DECREASE AT THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVER AR...AND THE FRONT STALLS.
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE OVERALL SVR WX THREAT
WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EVEN SO...AN ISOLATED STRONG
TO BRIEFLY SVR TSRA MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY ALSO BE SEEN...BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IN NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TO
BEGIN, AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE IN SITUATED ACROSS THE
CNTRL THIRD OF THE CONUS. A COMPACT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
THEN PROPAGATE THROUGH THIS BACKGROUND RIDGING, RESULTING IN RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING TO AR, ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE
PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, SETTLING
INTO THE STATE FROM THE N AND E THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY WHILE OUT W, A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES WITH FLOW BECOMING SWRLY ACROSS THE CNTRL THIRD OF THE
CONUS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE S AND SW PROMOTING WARM
AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
POP CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY, FROM NW TO SE, INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE SRN PLAINS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, WIND FIELDS NEAR THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT ARE NOT TOO FAVORABLE (FAIRLY WEAK) FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER PORTIONS OF NRN AR WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER AR TO END THE PERIOD.
TOTAL POTENTIAL QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS SW/W/NW AR COULD RANGE FROM 1-3"
OF RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING TO AROUND 0.50-1" OVER S-
CNTRL/SE SECTIONS OF THE STATE. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 80S. THE WARMEST AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
ONCE AGAIN, SCTD SHOWERS/FEW STORMS WL OCCUR ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING. KEPT PROB30 GROUPS IN FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH
MVFR CONDS NOTED WHERE HEAVIER STORMS OCCUR. LINGERING CHCS FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT, BUT LESS AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED. MVFR CEILINGS
WL RETURN LATE TNGT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH AR.
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...44
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