147
FXUS64 KLZK 242124
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
424 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS/FEW STORMS WERE NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE FA THIS
AFTN. THE ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCD WITH A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LIFTING ACRS
THE REGION, AS WELL AS THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS APCHG FM EASTERN OK.
THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN IS KEEPING TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.
SIMILAR TO WED, THE BULK OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION WL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, KEPT SOME LOW END
POPS (20-30%) IN OVERNIGHT AS THE MCS REMNANTS CONT TO TREK EASTWARD
ACRS THE FA.
RAIN CHCS WL CONT INTO FRI AS ANOTHER SWT APCHS FM THE WEST AND A
NEW CDFNT EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO NORTH AR. THE FRONT IS FCST TO STALL
OVER SOUTHWEST AR ON SAT, WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE FA.
THIS WL PROVIDE A BRIEF RESPITE IN RAIN CHCS FOR SOME LOCATIONS,
MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST AR.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
FROM SATURDAY, THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE DEFINED BY LARGE UPPER
TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED
STATES. OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT
LOWER RAIN CHANCES WHILE THE PATTERN PERSISTS. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT
GENERAL PATTERN WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAPPED WITHIN THE
RIDGE AXIS, NOTABLY OVER ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, MOVING
SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE CAUSED BY THE TROUGH ON SATURDAY
WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH
RIDGING WILL LARGELY TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY, WE MAY STILL SEE SOME AIR MASS SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY AS IT WILL
TAKE A BIT OF TIME FOR LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE TO CAUSE
ENOUGH AIR ALOFT TO SINK DOWN PLACING A WARM CAP OF AIR IN PLACE
OVER THE STATE FOR MONDAY.
ON MONDAY WITH RIDGING AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER, EXPECT A DRY DAY ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE
WITH LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES, LIKELY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN SUNDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS GIVING US OUR WARMEST DAY IN THE 7 DAY FORECAST.
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL START
TO MOVE EAST, BREAKING DOWN AND PUSHING THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE OFF
TO THE EAST. AT THIS TIME THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEST/NORTHWEST OF ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, SPREADING THE
STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A
LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
UPPER RIDGE AND THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WEST SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI, NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AND INTO OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY START OFF POSING A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF
THE DAY ON TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A LINE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO ARKANSAS
DROPPING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE TUNE OF 1-2 INCHES,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY AS REMNANT BITS AND BOBS OF THUNDERSTORMS
COMBINE WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO CAUSE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. PARTIALLY BECAUSE OF THE
IMPACT OF EARLIER CONVECTION AND PARTLY DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE
SLOW MOVING LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
WHICH, ON AVERAGE, ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS. IT'S NOT TO SAY SEVERE STORMS CAN'T HAPPEN IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT, IT'S MORE THAT SMALL SCALE CIRCUMSTANCES WILL LARGELY
DETERMINE THE CHARACTERISTIC OF A LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EACH
DAY LIKELY KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS LIMITED IN NATURE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS AT THIS TIME. BETWEEN ON AND OFF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND THE ASSOCIATED GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
CAVANAUGH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
ONCE AGAIN, SCTD SHOWERS/FEW STORMS WL OCCUR ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING. KEPT PROB30 GROUPS IN FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH
MVFR CONDS NOTED WHERE HEAVIER STORMS OCCUR. LINGERING CHCS FOR
PRECIP OVERNIGHT, BUT LESS AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED. MVFR CEILINGS
WL RETURN LATE TNGT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH AR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 63 83 61 75 / 40 60 20 20
CAMDEN AR 63 83 64 83 / 40 40 10 50
HARRISON AR 60 80 58 70 / 40 60 20 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 83 63 80 / 40 50 20 60
LITTLE ROCK AR 65 84 65 78 / 40 60 20 40
MONTICELLO AR 66 84 66 84 / 40 60 10 40
MOUNT IDA AR 63 84 63 80 / 40 40 20 60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 61 81 59 71 / 30 60 20 20
NEWPORT AR 66 82 63 74 / 40 60 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 65 83 64 81 / 40 60 20 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 63 84 63 79 / 40 50 20 40
SEARCY AR 63 83 61 75 / 40 60 20 20
STUTTGART AR 66 82 65 79 / 40 50 20 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...44
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