417
FXUS64 KLZK 251029
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
529 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
PRECIP EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT MOVES THROUGH. THIS
ACTIVITY COMBINED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS OVER NW LOUISIANA
LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND HAS CONTINUED IN SOME CAPACITY THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LOOKING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA, A DECAYING MCS
CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS E/SE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. IR SATELLITE DATA AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW THAT THIS
ACTIVITY IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING.
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AFTER 12Z, HAVE CUT
BACK QUITE A BIT ON POPS AS THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ANY
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SMALL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM EARLY MORNING
ACTIVITY THAT COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS MORE LIMITED.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A SFC FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE STATE AND A MORE NOTEWORTHY WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD
THE STATE IN THE WRLY FLOW ALOFT. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
REMNANTS FROM TS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOMETHING SIMILAR
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE STATE
FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AR WILL BE A BIT COOLER SAT-SUN AS
THE SFC FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
AR.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
SUNDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A H500 RIDGE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER ARKANSAS
WITH A SHORTWAVE PULSE WHICH IS PROGGED TO MEANDER THROUGH THE FLOW
PATTERN. A H500 CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN REGION
OF THE CONUS EJECTING THROUGH THE BASE OF A TROF AS THE UPPER LVL
FEATURE PUSHES OFF THE THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC, A STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM
FRONT LATER INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO REMAIN CLOSING OUT THE
WEEKEND, BUT BECOMING SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE AND WILL KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY.
MONDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A H500 RIDGE REMAINS PLANTED OVER ARKANSAS, WITH
A FIRST CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION OF
COLORADO/UTAH/WYOMING AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD WHILE A SECOND
CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE BASE OF A TROF BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN REGION OF THE CONUS. AT THE SFC, A WARM FRONT CONTINUES
TO MOVE ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ASSOCIATED WITH
A PARENT SFC LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION
OF THE CONUS WITH A ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA, NEBRASKA, KANSAS, OK/TX
PANHANDLES, AND NEW MEXICO. THE DISTANT PROXIMITY OF THESE SURFACE
FEATURES IN TANDEM WITH UPPER LVL FEATURES THAT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR POPS WILL KEEP ARKANSAS DRY ON MONDAY.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE CWA AND STATE OF ARKANSAS
AS THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE LATE APRIL NORMALS AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT WILL BE MUCH WARMER.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY:
IN THE UPPER LVLS, AN ELONGATED RIDGE REMAINS OVER ARKANSAS WITH
PREDOMINANT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, THROUGH THIS
ELONGATED RIDGE, SEVERAL SHORTWAVE PULSES WILL PASS THROUGH THE
OVERALL FLOW PATTERN WITH A TROF APPROACHING THE STATE BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND BECOMES A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
EXPECT A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER OVERALL AS POP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA AND STATE OF ARKANSAS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS PRESENTED A 15% CONTOUR FOR SEVERE WEATHER (EQUIVALENT TO
A SLIGHT RISK) ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD. IT REMAINS
TOO FAR INTO THE FUTURE TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC HAZARDS OR TIMING, BUT
IT MUST BE NOTED THAT INGREDIENTS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. KEEP UP TO DATE TO THE
LATEST FORECAST DISCUSSION AND SUBSEQUENT UPDATES REGARDING THIS
TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TERMINALS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY, DENSE FOG
THAT COULD DROP VSBY TO LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, CIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SITES WILL BEGIN IN IFR TO MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY BEFORE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS
EXPECTED BY LATER FRIDAY MORNING. LATER FRIDAY EVENING, SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MOST SITES AND THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE CIGS DROP TO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 82 62 74 58 / 40 20 30 30
CAMDEN AR 83 64 83 63 / 30 10 50 40
HARRISON AR 79 59 71 56 / 40 20 40 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 83 63 81 61 / 30 20 60 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 84 65 79 62 / 40 20 50 40
MONTICELLO AR 84 66 84 66 / 40 10 50 30
MOUNT IDA AR 85 63 81 62 / 30 20 60 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 80 60 71 56 / 40 20 30 40
NEWPORT AR 82 64 75 59 / 50 20 20 20
PINE BLUFF AR 83 65 82 63 / 40 10 50 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 84 64 79 61 / 30 10 50 40
SEARCY AR 83 62 77 58 / 40 10 30 30
STUTTGART AR 82 66 81 63 / 40 10 40 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ004-005-
031-039-042-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-
221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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